Weather Blog

Storms possible through the weekend

Fri, 24 May 2013 17:18:48 -0500

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A few showers and storms are possible this evening across our eastern most counties although it looks like most if not all of this activity will miss us to the east. You can watch our live streaming radar to see if we do end up getting any rain below.

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After warming to 100° yesterday we were quite a bit cooler today with temperatures right around the average values both this morning and afternoon. Below is a look at some of our morning lows and afternoon highs from today.

With a decent amount of moisture in place and partly cloudy conditions overnight we will again have mild temperatures tomorrow morning starting off in the mid 60s. Afternoon temperatures will be about the same as they were today, in the mid to upper 80s, with a south wind around 15-25mph. We have a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening with the best chance being across our western counties around the New Mexico/Texas State line. Below is a snapshot from our in-house Microcast computer model showing the setup for 4pm tomorrow.

Similar conditions expected Sunday through Tuesday although we will be a bit warmer with afternoon temperatures warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Each afternoon and evening there will be a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to form but coverage should be isolated and activity should be brief. If you have any outdoor plans this Memorial Day Weekend there is no need to alter or cancel them but just keep an eye on what’s happening with the weather. You can easily do that on the go with our live streaming radar on our FOX 34 News APP.

At the middle to end of next week models are showing a low pressure system swoop down across the South Plains providing us with a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. This setup would also favor severe storms with the current timeframe being between Wednesday and Thursday. This is still some five days away so anything could change but keep this in the back of your mind and we will continue to keep you updated as we get closer.

I hope you have a great weekend! I will step you through this very busy forecast tonight on the News at Nine and Caitlin will have all the forecast updates for you this weekend.

-Rudy

Chance for thunderstorms continues next several days

Fri, 24 May 2013 06:38:18 -0500

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STORMY DAY: The most significant severe weather yesterday was east of Lubbock, across the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains. This includes 2.58" at Snyder, 2.45" at Jayton, 0.46" at Roaring Springs. Click here - for more reports from the TTU Mesonet.

It just makes sense it was just more dust of Lubbock. But a lone storm late yesterday evening did produce 0.80" of rain at Lubbock's airport. So statistically we picked up a decent amount of rain in the city, but most residents didn't get any rain.

There were a few tornado reports, including:

1:53p 7 WSW of Cedar Hill - brief dusty tube
2:22p 2 S of Cedar Hill - brief touchdown
2:30p 6 E of Floydada - brief touchdown

There was also large hail, up to tennis ball-size hail. Radar showed strong rotation with a storm that moved toward Girard and Jayton. Storm chasers said there was lots of rain...so it may have been a rain-wrapped tornado, but no visual confirmation. It very well may have been straight-line wind, but there was some structural damage to homes and businesses in both communities. A gust of 92mph was clocked in Jayton, with other gusts around 80mph. As that storm moved out of our area a gust was clocked at 110mph in Rotan, with a tornado reported there.

Red icons below are tornado reports, lightning strikes wind, hail with the white dots.

Click here - for the full report list from the Storm Prediction Center.

TODAY: We've got a few isolated showers and storms developing this morning over the NW South Plains and SW Panhandle. We'll have to watch how much these showers grow south...it definitely is welcome rain. It won't be nearly as hot this afternoon, high in the mid 80s. It won't be as warm, but the dry line will stay in New Mexico. This means all of our area will have humidity, dew points in the 50s and 60s. After the showers west this morning there should be scattered storms by the afternoon.

Though we'll have a lot of surface instability, there won't be as many surface boundaries as yesterday. It also doesn't appear we'll have as much of an upper-level disturbance to promote lift. All this means the severe risk is lower. There could be a few storms that produce strong wind or hail, but the risk is definitely lower than yesterday.

THIS WEEKEND: The pattern doesn't change much. Mild nights and warm afternoons are ahead, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms each day through Memorial Day. It won't storm everywhere and the storms won't last long at any one location. While the chance isn't great, where it rains it'll pour. Moisture throughout the atmosphere will be rich and storms will move slowly.

NEXT WEEK: The pattern changes some once this big storm system over the western United States moves east. As it does so the severe weather risk should increase here. The moisture may increase a bit, leading to more surface instability. And the upper-level wind will increase, meaning storms will move faster but also organize more. A lot chance change in the coming days, but right now it looks like it'd be Wednesday when this happens, then turns drier by late in the week.

Have a great weekend. We'll have updates here as needed through the weekend. Rudy will have a full update to the forecast later today, Caitlin will have the updates through the weekend.
-Matt

Chance for storms through the weekend

Thu, 23 May 2013 16:04:13 -0500

9:00PM Update:

The Tornado Watch has been cancelled across the South Plains. As of this writing a few showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across the region but all of this activity will eventually exit the South Plains overnight. Some areas ended up receiving quite a bit of rainfall from the storms today. Click here for a look at the rainfall totals from the West Texas Mesonet sites. The rest of the forecast is below in the original blog post.

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A Tornado Watch has been issued for the entire South Plains until 10PM tonight. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for eastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin until 10PM as well. Storms initially formed across out northeastern counties and have slowly moved south. Another line of showers and thunderstorms formed in eastern New Mexico and will push east. You can watch all these storms form and move with our live streaming radar below.

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The main concern out of all of these storms will be large hail and strong damaging wind gusts although there is a chance for a few tornadoes to form. The main threat for tornadoes will be this afternoon in our eastern counties and as storms form into more of a cluster the tornado threat will diminish with the main concern shifting to large hail and strong wind gusts. With the strong wind gusts and outflows produced by the storms we have also seen lots of dust and dirt blown around temporarily reducing the visibility.

All this activity will push east and clear the area overnight. We again will have a chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening although the severity of the storms and the location of where they will form all depends on what ends up happening tonight. Even with some questions the chance for storms tomorrow looks decent and again any storms that form could become severe. This will be the case through the weekend into the middle of next week. While we certainly will welcome any rain we get with the potential for severe weather it is vital to stay weather aware.

We will keep you updated all evening long on our TV Stations, Radio Stations, and with our social media accounts. I will have an update on everything tonight on the News at Nine and Matt will have a complete updated forecast for you tomorrow morning.

-Rudy

Severe storms expected today

Thu, 23 May 2013 04:41:42 -0500

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updated 7:35 a.m.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the eastern South Plains to an enhanced "moderate risk" for severe storms. The moderate risk is roughly Silverton to Ralls to Jayton. Surrounding this is the standard "slight risk" for severe storms is about Muleshoe to Levelland to Lamesa and points east.

The upgrade in risk is because data continues to suggest significant severe weather in our area. Within the moderate risk SPC gives a 10 percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any given point.

posted 4:41 a.m.
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY: First, please share with anyone you know who usually doesn't pay attention to weather forecasts that some severe weather is possible in the area. It may not affect all of the area, but it's a good idea to keep up with the weather.

We'll have updates here online and the FOX 34 news app, as well as on FOX 34 and on the radio as needed through the day. If you have a NOAA weather radio be sure it's plugged in and on to receive warnings. If you have the FOX 34 MyWarn app you don't need to do anything other than make sure your phone is charged, it's always waiting to receive an outlook, watch or warning.

Also, a reminder that a watch means severe weather is possible in the coming hours. A warning means it's happening right now. A severe thunderstorm warning means hail of at least 1" diameter and/or gusts of at least 60mph. A tornado warning means a tornado has been spotted or radar indicates one may form.

THIS MORNING: It's mild with moisture returning to the area. It'll still be a few hours before the deep moisture gets here. At 4:30 the dew point is 46 Lubbock, 60 Snyder, 70s about to Ballinger and San Angelo. That humidity will stream north into the region through the morning.

INGREDIENTS: The ridge of high pressure that was right over our area yesterday will edge east today. The later it gets the less influence that ridge has. The ridge works to block storm development. A large upper-level storm system over the western United States will not move much next several days, sending impulses overhead each day. It looks like one of those will move overhead by late afternoon/evening, enhancing the lift. Meanwhile, at the surface the dry line will sharpen up and move somewhere to the middle of our area, around I-27, with deep moisture to its east. And a front will move in from the north.

While all of our area has a decent chance for rain and storms, those surface features are critical to where the greatest severe weather risk will be.

TIMING: A few isolated storms could develop around 1 p.m., probably somewhere northeast of Lubbock. We'll have to wait and see if the cap holds through this time. The better chance for storms comes from 3 p.m. through Midnight. Individual storms will move from southwest to northeast. A few lingering showers or storms could continue into early tomorrow morning.

SEVERE RISKS: Golf ball-size hail and 60mph gusts are the primary threats with storms. Close to those surface boundaries isolated tornadoes are possible. Much of our area it'll be so hot the cloud bases will be relatively high for tornado development, even with the deep moisture. But where the moisture is rich enough and the temp slightly lower...likely close to the boundaries...we'll have to watch for isolated tornadoes. Models do show a good deal of low-level twisting of the wind, which will rotate storms to at least produce very large hail.

As storms congeal into a cluster by tonight the tornado threat fades and it mainly becomes a hail and wind threat. There also will be localized flooding concerns, some areas could pick up a quick 1/2" to 1" of rain. The early morning Storm Prediction Center outlook highlights most of our area with the risk for severe storms:

TOMORROW: A lot of the smaller-scale features to make tomorrow's forecast hinge on what develops today. But it does look like a decent setup for thunderstorms to develop again, likely positioned a little bit farther west. There could again be some strong to severe storms.

EXTENDED: The overall pattern won't change much. We'll keep a slight chance for thunderstorms each afternoon through Memorial Day. Some of these storms could become strong or severe, though the risk for organized severe weather doesn't look as great. It's a little far out for specifics...but right now models show stronger upper-level support Tuesday. That could be another day with a higher severe risk.

Rudy, Caitlin and I will have updates through the day.

Possible severe weather tomorrow

Wed, 22 May 2013 17:32:09 -0500

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After a somewhat cooler day yesterday in which we only warmed into the upper 70s and low 80s today was quite a bit warmer as most of us warmed into the 90s. Below is a look at some of our morning lows and afternoon highs from today.

Moisture will increase across the region tonight setting us up with milder temperatures tomorrow morning as most of us start off in the mid to upper 60s. That added moisture will also set the stage for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. We could see our first storms form early in the afternoon between 1-3pm although the Cap, or warm air in the upper part of the atmosphere, could suppress any of that initial development. The much better chance for showers and thunderstorms to form will be in the late afternoon and evening. A cold front will move into our northeastern counties as a dryline sets up somewhere around the I-27 corridor. These boundaries along with an upper-level disturbance that will move overhead will help ignite showers and thunderstorms. Where these boundaries meet will be the best chance for severe weather and with the previously discussed thinking of the location of these boundaries that means our northeastern counties will have the best chance for severe storms tomorrow. The Storm Prediction Center highlights this area with their Slight Risk for Severe Weather which spans from just east of Abernathy up through Plainview to Amarillo and out east to Paducah, Childress and up into western Oklahoma. A graphic showing this risk is below.

This all hinges on where the cold front and dryline will setup and unfortunately right now models differ somewhat with that setup. If the cold front were to move farther south and the dryline sets up father west then the risk would expand farther to the southwest and vice versa. The main threats with any severe storms will be large hail and strong damaging wind gusts although we cannot completely rule out the possibility of a few isolated tornadoes forming. The best chance for tornadoes to form will be during the initial storm formation so during the afternoon hours. After storms initially form they will build back to the south and southwest before eventually all moving east. Once the storms congeal into more of a line versus discrete supercell thunderstorms then the threat for tornadoes will diminish and it will turn into more of a large hail and strong wind concern. There will also be plenty of moisture in place and these storms will be fairly slow moving. This means that some areas could get quite a bit of rain especially across the Rolling Plains where more moisture will be in place. In a setup like this rain will not fall uniformly meaning that some locations will completely miss out on the rain while others could get over an inch. Some showers could last overnight although storms should start to weaken after sunset.

We have another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday although the severity and location of storms will greatly depend on what happens tomorrow. The overall weather pattern won’t change much until the middle to end of next week which means we will have at least a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms every day until then.

I will break down this very busy forecast for you tonight on the News at Nine and Matt will have a complete updated forecast first thing tomorrow morning.

-Rudy