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We're watching the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms next few hours mainly northeast of Lubbock...then the possibility of scattered storms overnight tonight.
The Storm Prediction Center may issue a watch in the next few hours for parts of the area, mainly northeast of Lubbock, highlighted in brown below:
update 10:37 a.m.Quick update to show the latest SPC severe outlook. Not much has changed. Generally areas Lubbock to Plainview and east are in the outlook area:
The moisture continues to build northwest. Dew points in our area are in the 30s and low 40s...50s have made it to the Concho Valley, around San Angelo. It'll continue to get more humid through the day. Quiet now...watch for possible thunderstorm development by 3 to 5 p.m.
posted 7:02 a.m.QUIET START: It's cool and dry this morning, temp in the 30s and low 40s.
We have to look down to the Hill Country to find dew points in the 40s and 50s, 60s near San Antonio and Houston. The higher the dew point the more humid the air is. That greater moisture is headed this direction on a gusty southeast wind. I'm not completely convinced we'll see mid and upper 50s like the NAM model suggests but we do expect it to get more humid. For February dew points in the 50s will be enough for some surface instability for storms.
Clouds will increase through today, high temp in the low to mid 60s for most of the area. It'll be upper 60s to lower 70s over the southern South Plains. The wind will be gusty from the S/SE 12-22mph.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: A powerful upper-level storm system that's been producing snow across the Four Corners will bring the potential for storms here. With a strong wind field from that storm system and decent low-level moisture in place some storms could be strong to severe. It's only a slight chance for a shower or storm around Lubbock. The better chance for storms is east, for locations off the Caprock.
TIMING: There may be a few isolated storms by 3 p.m. today. If these storms can form they could quickly strengthen. The better timeframe for storms is after sunset until about 6 a.m. tomorrow. That's the window of opportunity but the actual number of storms will likely be limited.
SEVERE SETUP: Models are showing some surface instability with a decent amount of wind shear. This means if and where storms develop they could turn severe, producing hail greater than 1" diameter, wind gusts to 60mph and possibly an isolated tornado. While it isn't the predominant threat the tornado risk is a little greater over the Rolling Plains and southeast Panhandle, according to the 7 a.m. severe outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Here is the latest SPC severe outlook, yellow showing the standard "slight risk":
TOMORROW: After storms clear to the east by the morning we'll have a breezy afternoon, high in the mid to upper 50s.
WEEKEND: It'll be cooler both Saturday and Sunday with a decent amount of sun. Saturday's NW breeze will make it feel a bit cooler. Next week looks quiet and cool.
PHIL: Puxatawny Phil has seen his shadow, his projection is six more weeks of winter. For us it's a spring-time setup today. While much of the nation here has been mild it's been a bitter winter for much of Europe to Russia, Alaska and parts of Canada.
Enjoy your day! Be sure to check back here through the day for updates.
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-Matt
