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We're watching the potential for some storms late tomorrow.
The Storm Prediction Center issues the severe outlook four times a day for day 1 (today)...they issue twice for the day 2 outlook (tomorrow's outlook). The second day 2 update comes out mid-day and here it is, showing not much change from this morning's outlook.
It highlights the Rolling Plains, Big Country and North Central Texas with the risk for some severe storms late tomorrow into early Friday.
One minor change in the newest model data is that we may see a few isolated storms late in the afternoon, bumping up the start time of storms from late evening to before sunset. This could happen if it warms to the upper 60s to lower 70s, as the NAM model is suggesting. The GFS model isn't quite as aggressive with the warm-up. With a gusty S/SE wind and low-level jet increasing through tomorrow it does seem plausible that it could warm up quickly across the central or eastern part of our area, so we'll be watching for a few isolated storms late afternoon.
While there is a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm around Lubbock late tomorrow the greatest potential for storms is east of the city, off of the Caprock. If storms do turn severe the main threat will be hail, though strong wind is possible. The wind field will be strong enough that an isolated tornado could develop somewhere out east if the storms are based at the surface.
We'll be reviewing new information this afternoon. Rudy will have a full update later today.
-Matt
MILD TODAY: Another mild day is on the way across the South Plains, upper 60s to lower 70s. Lubbock's high near 68 with a mainly sunny sky, wind NW/N 5-15mph.
WHERE'S THE MOISTURE? We're looking at the potential for thunderstorms tomorrow night. While it's dry here in Lubbock we don't have to go too far to find, at least by February standards, some decent moisture. The dew point is in the 40s at Snyder this morning, 50s across Central Texas and 60s at San Antonio and Houston. The higher that number is the more humid the air is. A dense fog advisory covers much of South, Central and North Texas this morning because it is so humid.
RAIN CHANCE: Tomorrow will be another mild afternoon, mid 60s with clouds increasing late in the afternoon. As an upper-level storm system approaches late tomorrow we have a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm around Lubbock. It'll be breezy through the day, S/SE wind 12-22mph. That wind will help bring dew points in the 40s and low 50s to the area. The chance for showers or thunderstorms is better east of Lubbock, across the Rolling Plains.
It appears the most likely timeframe for thunderstorms is from 9 p.m. tomorrow night to 5 a.m. Friday.
SEVERE WEATHER: The Storm Prediction Center's Day 2 outlook highlights an area east of Lubbock for the risk for severe weather tomorrow night. This includes Paducah, Matador, Dickens, Spur, Jayton and points east toward Wichita Falls and Abilene.
Again I'm referencing the fact that we're in February but there will be decent instability in this region. With the strength of the upper-level storm system there will be quite a bit of shear, or twisting of the wind with height, which could organize some storms to produce hail greater than 1" and strong wind gusts.
The risk for severe weather fades west of the outlook area, though some thunderstorms are possible along and east of I-27.
Models have decent agreement on this setup. We'll, of courese, be watching the new data through today and watching how the small-scale features develop tomorrow. This isn't a guarantee for rain but at least it's a chance...more than we've seen in some time.
COOLER WEEKEND: Behind the storm system it'll turn breezy and cooler. Friday now looks a little warmer, topping out in the 50s. Saturday and Sunday will likely top out in the 40s. Next week will start cool.
Have a great day! I'll post updates today as needed, Rudy will have a full update to the forecast later today here and on FOX 34 News @ Nine.
-Matt
