Mid-July update on drought

Yes, it's historically dry on the South Plains. But this report from the Lubbock office of the National Weather Service breaks down exactly just how hot.



DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
104 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

...EXCEPTIONALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...

SYNOPSIS...
SPOTTY HEAVY RAIN FELL AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE FIRST TWO
WEEKS OF JULY...LEADING TO A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT LEVELS
CENTERED ON HALL AND SOUTHERN BRISCOE COUNTIES. THIS AREA WAS
INDICATED TO BE IN SEVERE DROUGHT...D3..ACCORDING TO THE MOST
RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED JULY 12TH. AREAS OF MODERATE
RAIN ALSO WERE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS NEAR MORTON...
AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...BUT NOT
SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS TO LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT LEVELS. MUCH
OF THE AREA RECEIVED LITTLE IF ANY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD...AND REMAINED IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...D4.

TEMPERATURES REMAINED HOT AS WELL DURING THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF
JULY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
CHILDRESS REACHED OR EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY...WITH AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES 6.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON THE CAPROCK
HAD TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY FROM THE EXCEPTIONAL HEAT IN JUNE...BUT
REMAINED 5.7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT LUBBOCK FOR THE FIRST TWO
WEEKS OF JULY.

THIS COMBINATION OF EXTREME DRYNESS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY
CAUSES ENHANCED EVAPORATION RATES AS WELL. APPARENT BENEFICIAL
SHOWERS HAVE TYPICALLY EVAPORATED BY LATE MORNING OF THE FOLLOWING
DAY...RESULTING IN LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENT TO VEGETATION OR SOIL
PROFILES.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
AMBIENT FUELS REMAINED AT RECORD ENERGY-RELEASE LEVELS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND NEAR ALL-TIME HIGHS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF JULY...CREATING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR RECORD FUEL
ENERGY LEVELS. IN ADDITION...THE SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OFTEN
BEEN INEFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WHILE CONTINUING TO CAUSE STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING. SEVERAL RECENT LIGHTNING STORMS
HAVE CAUSED FIRE STARTS WITH SUBSEQUENT WIND GUSTS LEADING TO
RAPID FIRE SPREAD.

LARGE-SCALE WIND STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED RECENTLY...BUT THERE
REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX AVAILABLE FROM THE TEXAS
FOREST SERVICE REFLECTS DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WITH INDICES RANGING
FROM 600 TO 800 ACROSS THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOST EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED DEEP-BURNING
WILDFIRES. THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT...A QUANTITY THAT RATES
THE AMOUNT OF VEGETATIVE FUEL AVAILABLE FOR WILD-LAND FIRE AND ITS
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO BURNING...IS CURRENTLY AT VALUES THAT EXCEED THE
90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE FUEL
CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE UNTIL MOISTURE LEVELS CONCLUSIVELY
SPREAD INTO THE REGION LEADING TO HIGHER HUMIDITY AND NEW GREEN
GROWTH. BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE REGION.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS

VERY LITTLE IF ANY DRY-LAND COTTON WAS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE...WHILE
FARMERS ON THE SOUTH PLAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ABANDON CORN IN ORDER
TO DIVERT IRRIGATION TO COTTON. AQUIFER DRAW-DOWN HAD DRASTICALLY
INCREASED...SUGGESTING THAT IRRIGATION MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CONTINUE
FOR LONG. CATTLE PRODUCERS CONTINUED TO CULL HERDS FOR LACK OF
WATER AND/OR FORAGE...AND RECORD NUMBERS OF CATTLE SALES WERE
REPORTED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY

THE EXTREME DRYNESS THIS YEAR HAS FAR EXCEEDED ANY OTHER SIMILAR
PERIOD ON RECORD FOR LUBBOCK. RAINFALL FROM JANUARY 1ST THROUGH
JULY 13TH WAS 1.13 INCHES. THE SECOND DRIEST SIMILAR PERIOD WAS
4.13 INCHES IN 1965. THIS YEAR SAW A COMPLETE FAILURE OF THE SPRING
WET SEASON ON THE SOUTH PLAINS. CHILDRESS...LIKEWISE...HAS ALSO
HAD ITS DRIEST JANUARY 1ST THROUGH JULY 13TH ON RECORD WITH 3.64
INCHES...COMPARING TO THE NEXT DRIEST OF 4.44 INCHES IN 1953. WITH
VERY FEW EXCEPTIONS...THESE CONDITIONS WERE WIDESPREAD AROUND THE
REGION. THE DROUGHT OF 2011 CLEARLY STANDS OUT AS AMONG THE MOST
EXTREME IN THIS REGION IN THE PAST 100 YEARS.

THE PAST 45 TO 50 DAYS ALSO HAVE SEEN A RELENTLESS HEAT WAVE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LUBBOCK SINCE MAY 28TH
HAVE AVERAGED 100.2 DEGREES...WHICH IS FAR WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 97.6 DEGREES IN 1998. HIGHS AT LUBBOCK SO FAR THIS YEAR
HAVE REACHED THE CENTURY MARK ON 25 DAYS. ON AVERAGE...HIGHS IN
LUBBOCK REACH 100 DEGREES ABOUT 9 TIMES...WHILE THE RECORD FOR THE
MOST 100 DEGREE DAYS IN A SINGLE YEAR IS 29 DAYS IN 1934.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AT CHILDRESS DURING THIS SAME SPELL HAVE AVERAGED
103.7 DEGREES...FAR WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THIS SAME
PERIOD OF 101.4 DEGREES IN 1934. HIGHS SO FAR THIS YEAR AT CHILDRESS
HAVE TOPPED THE CENTURY MARK 48 TIMES. THIS COMPARES TO AN AVERAGE
OF AROUND 20 DAYS PER YEAR AND THE RECORD OF 71 DAYS SET IN 1934.

ONCE AGAIN...THESE CONDITIONS GENERALLY REFLECT SIMILAR DATE
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS REGIONS. THERE
SEEMS TO BE LITTLE QUESTION THAT THE BUILD-UP OF THE HEAT HAS BEEN
CLOSELY CONNECTED TO THE EXTENDED DROUGHT.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT OCCURRED LATE ON
JULY 11TH AND EARLY THE 12TH FROM SOUTHERN BRISCOE COUNTY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF SILVERTON...THROUGH MUCH OF HALL COUNTY...INTO WESTERN
CHILDRESS COUNTY. A NUMBER OF UNOFFICIAL RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS
WERE IN THE 5 TO 6 INCH RANGE...WHILE A SINGLE LOCATION ESTIMATED
RAINFALL AT 10.5 INCHES. IT IS TOO SOON AND UNCLEAR HOW MUCH THIS
RAIN WILL BENEFIT THOSE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH A HEAVY
RAIN IN THE AREA ABOUT A MONTH AGO...THIS WAS ENOUGH TO LOWER
DROUGHT LEVELS BY ONE CATEGORY IN THIS REGION.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH OF JULY INTO THE EARLY AUGUST IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED DRYNESS. HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS BUT THE RECORD HEAT
WILL BE FOUND WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SUMMER MONTHS. THERE ARE VERY SLIM CHANCES
OF ISOLATED RAIN LATE THIS WEEK AND BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE SOME CHANCE AT LONG TERM PRECIPITATION RELIEF. LONGER TERM
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SEPTEMBER SHOW EQUAL CHANCES OF SEEING
RAINFALL ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK

AREA WATER RESOURCES HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE. NEARBY RESERVOIR
CONDITIONS AS OF JULY 14TH INCLUDE...

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL   24-HR  MAXIMUM PERCENT OF  RAIN
                      POOL    TODAY  CHANGE  DEPTH  CONSERVATION
                                             (FEET)  CAPACITY
  MACKENZIE LAKE      3100   3017.2   -0.03    67       12       0.00
  WHITE RIVER LAKE    2370   2352.2   -0.03    25       29       0.00
  LAKE ALAN HENRY     2220   2214.7   -0.02    98       87       0.00
  LAKE MEREDITH       2936   2847.1   -0.02  34.1        M       0.14

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON JULY 28TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY
IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV