This winter will likely be another dry one...on the heels of a dry fall, winter, spring, summer and fall. Not good news for West Texas when you consider Lubbock is on pace to have the driest year on record. In fact, 1917 is the driest thus far at 8.73", with only 0.22" falling in Oct-Dec of that year. Right now we're at 3.16" for the year, with no good sign of rain for the rest of this month. You can even through in November and December 2010 and it would still keep us at number one for driest year, with only 0.07" falling in those months.
NOAA's winter outlook highlights better than a 50 percent chance that our winter will be drier than average. Now these are, on average, dry months already. Here is average precip based on 1981-2010 data:
- Dec 0.76"
- Jan 0.65"
- Feb 0.75"
Last year we recorded a trace in December, 0.06" in January 2011 and 0.43" in February. We're likely in for something similar. This said...every La Nina and every El Nino is different.
This outlook is no surprise. We've seen the signals for quite a while now pointing to a strengthening La Nina. We had La Nina last year and it's been bone dry. 2009 into 2010 it was a stronger El Nino. Remember than Christmas Eve 2009 snow?...El Nino year. It's important to note that this doesn't mean it won't rain or snow. It doesn't even mean we won't see a good precip event. But long-term this winter is looking dry.
Here is the precip outlook for this winter from NOAA:
Now temperature is another thing. La Nina doesn't necessarily mean warmer weather here, though it often means greater temp swings because of drier air and soil. It was bitter cold last February. The temp signal isn't as strong, but NOAA is projecting a better chance that we'll be warmer than average.
Click here - for the full outlook details from NOAA.
