Here is the latest drought outlook from the National Weather Service
Lubbock office. It drives home the fact that it is going to take inches of soaking rain to turn things around.
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011
...DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION...
NEARLY SEVEN MONTHS OF RELENTLESS DROUGHT HAVE LED TO THE EXPANSION
OF EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT LEVELS...D4...OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS. EXTREME DROUGHT...D3...HAS EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND MOST OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. THESE CONDITIONS REFLECT THE LATEST
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED MAY 10.
THE FIRST NOTABLE RAINFALL IN WEEKS GAVE MANY AREAS UP TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WEDNESDAY...WHILE SEVERAL AREAS RECEIVED A
HALF INCH OR MORE. BUT THIS RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE LED
TO ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE VERY DRY SOILS AROUND THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...STRONG DRY WINDS DEVELOPED FOLLOWING THE RAIN
WHICH LED TO ENHANCED EVAPORATION. ALTHOUGH THIS RAIN WAS A
HOPEFUL SIGN...IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL MORE SIMILAR RAIN EVENTS TO
BEGIN REVERSING THE EXTREME CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED
AROUND THE REGION.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
THE BETTER PART OF THE PAST WEEK HAS SEEN DAY AFTER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DUE TO PERSISTENT DRY WESTERLY WINDS AND VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ALSO HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO NEAR RECORD FUEL ENERGY LEVELS. IN ADDITION...A FEW
RECENT LIGHTNING STORMS MAY HAVE BEEN CULPABLE IN THE IGNITION OF
A NUMBER OF RECENT WILDFIRES...INCLUDING A VERY LARGE FIRE COMPLEX
IN DICKENS COUNTY. THIS ALIGNMENT OF THE DEEPENING DROUGHT WITH
ONGOING CRITICAL WEATHER AND WORSENING FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO
RAISE CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD UNTIL MOISTURE
LEVELS CONCLUSIVELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION LEADING TO HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND NEW GREEN GROWTH.
MOISTURE TYPICALLY INCREASES BY LATE APRIL OR EARLY MAY...BUT HAS
BEEN BLOCKED THIS YEAR BY ABNORMALLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY...BUT A RETURN TO DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW COULD QUICKLY BRING ON ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX WAS SHOWING VALUES MOSTLY
FROM 600 TO 700 ACROSS THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOST EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED DEEP-BURNING
WILDFIRES. COUNTY BURN BANS CONTINUE IN PLACE OVER NEARLY THE
ENTIRE REGION. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ADDITIONAL LARGE RAPIDLY EXPANDING AND LONG LASTING FIRES
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... WINTER WHEAT WAS SUFFERING AS A RESULT OF
THE ON-GOING DROUGHT THOUGH SPECIFIC IMPACTED FIELDS MAY VARY
DEPENDING ON IRRIGATION. STOCK PONDS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS
CONTINUED TO DWINDLE. DRY-LAND FIELDS ON THE HIGH PLAINS WERE
REPORTING VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER TWO OR THREE FEET
OF THE SOIL PROFILE...AND WERE IN NEED OF IMPROVED MOISTURE
THROUGH THIS LAYER.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
AS NOTED EARLIER...RECENT RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING A
HALF INCH OR MORE. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BEEN WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH OR WITH ENOUGH RAIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALLEVIATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...AND ALSO REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
RAINFALL SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN MOSTLY FROM 10 TO
25 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ON TOP OF THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...APRIL
ALSO FINISHED THE MONTH OVER 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL AT
LUBBOCK AND OVER 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT CHILDRESS. HIGHER
EVAPORATION USUALLY RESULTS FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES...FEWER
CLOUDS...AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
RAINFALL SINCE THE END OF OCTOBER HAS RANGED FROM UNDER A TENTH
OF AN INCH AT PLAINS TO CLOSE TO TWO INCHES AT A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS FRIONA...PLAINVIEW...TULIA...AND GUTHRIE. MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE RECORDED CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
SINCE JUST THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...THIS IS ABOUT TWO TO FOUR
INCHES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND FOUR TO SIX INCHES
LESS THAN NORMAL OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. SINCE THE FIRST OF THE
YEAR RAINFALL AT LUBBOCK WAS 2.85 INCHES SHORT OF NORMAL...WHILE
AT CHILDRESS THE RAINFALL DEFICIT STOOD AT 5.32 INCHES. THIS
DROUGHT CONTINUES TO RANK NEAR HISTORICAL LOWEST RAINFALL DURING
THIS PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
HE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A
GREATER THAN NORMAL CHANCE FOR WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUMMER. THE CLIMATE
OUTLOOK ALSO INDICATES DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
INTO MAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE EQUAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL BY JUNE
AND JULY. LA NINA CONDITIONS WHICH MOST LIKELY HAVE INFLUENCED
THIS DROUGHT WERE SLOWLY WEAKENING...AND WERE EXPECTED TO END BY
EARLY SUMMER. SHORTER TERM PROJECTIONS WERE AT LEAST GIVING A SLIM
HOPE FOR SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS EVERY FEW DAYS OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH MID MAY...THOUGH ANY RESULTING PRE|
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
NEARBY RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF APRIL 21ST INCLUDE...
RESERVOIR CONSERVATION POOL 24-HR MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
(FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3019.6 -0.02 70 14
WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2354.3 -0.02 27 30
LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2216.4 -0.03 99 91
LAKE MEREDITH 2936 2850.4 -0.08 37.4 -7
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON MAY 26 2011 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY
IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
