This is the latest update from the Lubbock office of the National Weather Service on the historic drought. 64 percent of Texas is now the D4 category, highest on the chart, of the U.S. Drought Monitor.
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2011
...DROUGHTS GRIP ON SOUTHERN PLAINS TIGHTENS AS HEAT BUILDS...
A PROLONGED HOT SPELL SINCE LATE MAY HAS ALIGNED WITH ON-GOING
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.
THE DROUGHT HAS BEEN FURTHER COMPLICATED BY DESICCATING WIND.
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...D4...IS THE HIGHEST DROUGHT CATEGORY AND
INDICATES A DROUGHT MAGNITUDE WITH A RETURN RATE OF ROUGHLY ONE IN
50 YEARS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT SURVEYS LOCAL AND
NATIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND IS ISSUED WEEKLY. THE LATEST U.S.
DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT ISSUED THIS MORNING REFLECTED CONDITIONS
THROUGH JUNE 14TH.
MODEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS...TOTALING FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO
AROUND AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS...FELL LATE LAST WEEK FROM THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE RAIN
AMOUNTS WERE STILL ONLY 10% TO 50% OF NORMAL TOTALS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF JUNE...THUS FURTHER DEEPENING RAINFALL DEFICITS. MOST OF
THE AREA FARED WORSE...WITH NO RAINFALL...0% OF NORMAL...REPORTED
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE. EARLY JUNE ON AVERAGE IS AMONG THE
WETTEST PERIODS OF THE YEAR FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...A HOT SPELL BUILDING SINCE THE END OF MAY
HAS LED TO THE HOTTEST FIRST HALF OF JUNE ON RECORD FOR LUBBOCK
WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGED 98.6 DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST 15 DAYS OF JUNE AT LUBBOCK EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES 7
TIMES. CHILDRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED 101.7 DEGREES...
MAKING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS JUNE THE SECOND HOTTEST START ON
RECORD. THE CENTURY MARK HAS BEEN ECLIPSED ALREADY 9 TIMES AT
CHILDRESS DURING THE FIRST 15 DAYS OF JUNE. LOW TEMPERATURES
LIKEWISE HAVE BEEN AT RECORD LEVELS AT LUBBOCK DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF JUNE...AVERAGING 69.4 DEGREES. A SAMPLING OF OTHER
LOCATIONS WITH RECORD HEAT IN THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE INCLUDE
PADUCAH WITH HIGHS AVERAGING 103.4 DEGREES...ASPERMONT 102.7
DEGREES...AND TURKEY AVERAGING 100.9 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE HAVE BEEN ABOUT 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANWHILE...THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE EXTENDED FAR LATER
INTO THE SPRING THAN NORMAL RESULTING IN A NUMBER OF RECENT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAYS. TO ILLUMINATE THE FIRE DANGER...A
RECENT WILD-FIRE IN NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTY...POTENTIALLY IGNITED
BY LIGHTNING...BURNED NEARLY 30,000 ACRES BETWEEN JUNE 9TH AND
JUNE 11TH. TINDER-DRY CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED TO BE WIDE-SPREAD
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
AMBIENT FUELS REMAIN AT RECORD ENERGY-RELEASE LEVELS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND NEAR ALL-TIME HIGHS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING HAS INTENSIFIED EARLIER THAN NORMAL...THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS
HAS SHIFTED AT TIMES JUST EAST OF THE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED A
NUMBER OF WINDY DAYS TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE WITH
RESULTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE
OF INADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED HAVE BEEN MOSTLY ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE OR NO RAIN...
VERY HIGH CLOUD BASES...AND STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. THESE TYPE
OF HIGH-BASED LIGHTNING STORMS FURTHER ACCENTUATE CONDITIONS
BROUGHT ON BY THE FAILURE OF THE RAIN AND LACK OF GREEN-UP. THE
RESULT THIS YEAR HAS BEEN AN EXTENSION OF THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON
LATE INTO THE SPRING...AND LIKELY INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER AS
WELL.
THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX AVAILABLE FROM THE TEXAS
FOREST SERVICE REFLECTS DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WITH INDICES RANGING
FROM 600 TO 800 ACROSS THE REGION. THESE VALUES ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOST EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED DEEP-BURNING
WILDFIRES. THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT...A QUANTITY THAT RATES
THE AMOUNT OF VEGETATIVE FUEL AVAILABLE FOR WILD-LAND FIRE AND ITS
SUSCEPTIBILITY TO BURNING...IS CURRENTLY AT VALUES THAT EXCEED THE
90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE. THESE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT
IMPROVE UNTIL MOISTURE LEVELS CONCLUSIVELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION
LEADING TO HIGHER HUMIDITY AND NEW GREEN GROWTH. THESE FIRE
WEATHER INDICES ARE IN CONCERT WITH BURN BANS THAT ARE IN PLACE
FOR ALL 24 COUNTIES IN THE REGION.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
MOST ASPECTS OF AGRICULTURE CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM PROLONGED
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. EXTREME EVAPORATION RATES HAVE QUICKLY
DISSIPATED MOST OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE BENEFIT FROM ANY RECENT
SHOWERS. COTTON PLANTING WAS NEARING COMPLETION...BUT MUCH OF THIS
WAS DONE ONLY TO MEET INSURANCE REGULATIONS. DRY-LAND CROPS...FOR
THE MOST PART...HAVE YET TO EMERGE WITH LITTLE OR NO AVAILABLE
SOIL MOISTURE. CATTLE HERDS WERE REPORTED TO BE SOLD OFF OR
DOWNSIZED DUE TO LACK OF FORAGE AND/OR COSTLY FEED. WATER TANKS
WERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY STRESSED WITH LOW TANK LEVELS.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL AT LUBBOCK AS BEEN 1.10 INCHES...WHICH RANKS
AS THE LOWEST ON RECORD FOR THE JANUARY 1ST THROUGH JUNE 15TH TIME
PERIOD. THIS COMPARES TO THE PREVIOUS LOWEST AMOUNT OF 2.10 INCHES
IN 1945. THE NORMAL YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL FOR LUBBOCK THROUGH JUNE
15TH IS 7.09 INCHES...MAKING THIS YEAR 5.99 INCHES BELOW NORMAL OR
ONLY 15.5 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SIMILARLY...YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL AT
CHILDRESS IS 1.85 INCHES...WHICH ALSO RANKS AS THE LOWEST ON
RECORD AND IS 8.45 INCHES /OR 18 PERCENT/ OF THE NORMAL OF 10.30
INCHES. THE PREVIOUS LOWEST OF 3.85 INCHES OCCURRED IN 1956. SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE FARED EVEN WORSE...WITH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAVING
RECEIVED UNDER 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL. MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS HAVE RECEIVED
BETWEEN 10 AND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL...WITH
ONLY A FEW SMALL POCKETS THAT HAVE RECEIVED OVER 25 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL SLIM THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AND ISOLATED GENERALLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY BRING A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN AND BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVED RAIN CHANCES...BUT THE
FORECAST OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR JULY
FAVORS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL. THE
3-MONTH OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST...SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER ALSO HAVE ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCES OF SEEING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH EQUAL
CHANCES OF SEEING RAINFALL ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL.
