This is the latest drought statement from the Lubbock office of the National Weather Service.
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1106 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2011
...RELENTLESS HEAT AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GRIP THE
SOUTH PLAINS INTO EARLY AUGUST...
SYNOPSIS...
THE HISTORIC DROUGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
CONTINUED TO WORSEN DURING LATE JULY AND THE FIRST PART OF AUGUST
DUE TO VERY SPARSE RAINFALL AND EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES.
ALTHOUGH SECTIONS OF BRISCOE AND HALL COUNTIES REMAINED IN D3
CONDITIONS...THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
REMAINED ENTRENCHED IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. THIS WEATHER FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AND HAS
SEVERELY SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
PRACTICALLY ALL DRY-LAND CROPS HAVE FAILED. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 100 DEGREES AND ABOVE AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL HAS
STRESSED IRRIGATED CROPS. MANY COTTON FIELDS HAVE QUICKLY MOVED INTO
CUT-OUT STAGE. SOME GROWERS ARE NOW EXPECTING TO HARVEST IN
SEPTEMBER. MANY PRODUCERS ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE WHEN TO TERMINATE
IRRIGATION WITHOUT RISKING YIELD AND QUALITY LOSS. CATTLE SELL OFF
CONTINUES DUE TO THE LACK OF FORAGE AND SHORTENING SUPPLIES OF HAY
AND WATER WHILE OTHER RANCHERS HAVE SECURED LEASES OUT OF STATE WITH
THE PLAN TO MOVE BROOD HERDS TO THOSE AREAS. PREPARATIONS FOR WHEAT
PLANTING HAVE BEEN DELAYED. PECAN AND FRUIT TREES WERE BEING WATERED.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS PLAGUING THE
REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...THE MAJORITY OF AREA FUELS
REMAIN DORMANT AND STILL EXHIBIT RECORD ENERGY RELEASE LEVELS. THIS
VOLATILITY CONTINUES TO BE ILLUSTRATED BY THE OCCURRENCE OF
OCCASIONAL WILDFIRES...MOST OF WHICH HAVE BEEN IGNITED BY LIGHTNING.
LARGE-SCALE WIND STORMS ARE FAIRLY UNCOMMON DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HAVE NOT DEVELOPED RECENTLY...BUT
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX AVAILABLE FROM THE TEXAS
FOREST SERVICE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THE UPPER-MOST REALM OF INDICES
FROM 600 TO 800 ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THESE
VALUES ARE COINCIDENT WITH THE MOST EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
ENHANCED DEEP-BURNING WILDFIRES. THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT...A
QUANTITY THAT RATES THE AMOUNT OF VEGETATIVE FUEL AVAILABLE FOR
WILDLAND FIRE AND ITS SUSCEPTIBILITY TO BURNING...HAS RISEN ABOVE
THE 97TH PERCENTILE AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT...BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT
THE ENTIRE REGION.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE MONTH OF JULY WAS THE WARMEST SINGLE MONTH ON RECORD FOR BOTH
LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS...WITH A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 86.0
DEGREES AT LUBBOCK AND 90.2 DEGREES AT CHILDRESS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR JULY AVERAGED 99.2 DEGREES AT LUBBOCK AND A
SCORCHING 104.1 DEGREES AT CHILDRESS. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...THE
FIRST 10 DAYS OF AUGUST HAVE BEEN EVEN HOTTER...WITH AN AVERAGE
HIGH OF 101.9 DEGREES AT LUBBOCK AND 107.5 DEGREES AT CHILDRESS.
THROUGH AUGUST 10TH...LUBBOCK HAS NOW SEEN 43 DAYS THIS YEAR AT OR
ABOVE 100...WHILE CHILDRESS HAS EXPERIENCED 76 DAYS AT OR ABOVE
THE CENTURY MARK. BOTH OF THESE STATISTICS ARE RECORDS FOR EACH
CITY. OF NOTE...CHILDRESS HAS ALSO CONTINUED ITS RECORD STREAK OF
CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS...NOW AT 50 DAYS THROUGH AUGUST 10TH.
THIS HAS SMASHED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 32 DAYS SET IN 1943.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DID SEE A LITTLE RAINFALL
DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...HOWEVER TOTAL AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION DID NOT SEE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
IN THE AREA MAY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BETTER RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG
WITH A TAD COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS
ACROSS TEXAS.
LONG TERM OUTLOOKS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE AUGUST THROUGH EARLY
FALL INDICATE A TREND TO EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WITH A REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST THROUGH
OCTOBER...ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...SHOWS THAT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OR INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA WATER RESOURCES CONTINUE TO DECLINE DUE TO LACK OF RAINFALL
AND HIGH LEVELS OF EVAPORATION.
NEARBY RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF AUGUST 11TH INCLUDE:
RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 28 DAY MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
(FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3016.2 -1.0 66 12
WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2351.1 -1.1 24 26
LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2214.0 -0.7 97 86
LAKE MEREDITH 2936 2845.6 -1.5 32.6 -9
