10:22 a.m. update
A wind advisory is in place for most of the South Plains, Panhandle, eastern New Mexico and western Oklahoma today for sustained wind over 30mph.
Lubbock missed out on the rain and storms last night, these stayed west and north of the city. Especially in the Panhandle there were some good rain totals, where the storms were severe. Here are rain totals from the TTU Mesonet:
Tulia 2ENE 0.66 IN
Olton 6S 0.46 IN
Hart 3N 0.45 IN
Plainview 1S 0.36 IN
Amherst 1NE 0.25 IN
Anton 6SSW 0.15 IN
Friona 2NE 0.14 IN
Denver City 7WNW 0.13 IN
Muleshoe 2SSW 0.11 IN
Silverton 7ESE 0.11 IN
Dora NM 2SW 0.11 IN
Dimmitt 2NE 0.09 IN
Levelland 4S 0.07 IN
Hobbs NM 5NW 0.05 IN
Sundown 8WSW 0.04 IN
Tatum NM 2SW 0.03 IN
Plains 3N 0.03 IN
Caprock Canyons State Park 0.02 IN
Turkey 2WSW 0.01 IN
A few showers and storms continue across our northern counties as of this writing. All of this activity is well below severe limits and we do not expect anymore severe weather the rest of the night. As a Pacific Cold Front moves through the South Plains over the next several hours we could see some more rain and weak storms develop but don't expect anything severe. Your full forecast is detailed in the original blog post below.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for most of the South Plains as highlighted in the graphic below. A line of showers and storms has developed across the western South Plains and as of this writing everything has stayed below severe limits. Storms will continue to intensify over the next couple of hours and the line will eventually push from west to east across the region. The main threat with any severe storms tonight will be large hail but there could also be some strong wind gusts embedded within the line of storms. The rest of the forecast is still on track which you can see below.
Connect with me on Facebook
We are watching for the potential for rain and storms across the South Plains this afternoon and tonight. You can keep an eye on everything as well with our live streaming radar below.
A weak dryline is starting to setup across the South Plains with a decent amount of moisture pooling to the east. The dewpoint temperature is an indicator of how much moisture we have in the air. Anything in the 50s is decent while 60+ is good. Below is a look at our current dewpoint readings.
Clouds have cleared quite a bit and we are seeing plenty of sunshine this afternoon across the region which has helped to warm our temperatures into the mid to upper 70s as of this writing. I would not be surprised if a few locations warm into the 80s this afternoon. That paired with the decent moisture in place could provide enough instability to fire off some thunderstorms this afternoon. While the chances for that still don’t look great, if that were to happen any of those storms could quickly become strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted most of the South Plains under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather not only for the chance of storms this afternoon but also for a line of storms which could move through tonight. That slight risk is highlighted in the graphic below.
An upper-level low pressure system will continue to move closer from the west and as it does bring better lift across the region. This system will also push a Pacific Cold Front through the South Plains late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Along the leading edge of that front a line of showers and storms could develop and then continue to push east with the front. The main threat within the stronger storms in this line will be large hail but we could also experience some strong wind gusts. Tonight would be a good night to keep your car parked under a carport or in the garage.
As far as the timing for all this activity is concerned, again we could see a few isolated showers or storms form this afternoon and evening but don’t expect the line of storms to start to form until about 9 or 10 o’clock tonight in our western counties. This line should reach the Lubbock area by around midnight and then exit our eastern counties by no later than 7am tomorrow morning. Give or take an hour with any of the times listed above but that is the general consensus of all the current model runs. Below is a series of snapshots from the RPM model showing the setup for tonight.
Tomorrow we will have a strong west to southwest wind with sustained wind speeds reaching 35mph and gusts at times up to 55mph. With all the dry air in place behind the front and winds that strong we could see some dust and dirt blown around. This will also setup a concern for wildfires so please be mindful of that if planning on doing anything outside that could cause a spark or fire.
A more traditional arctic style cold front will move through late Saturday into early Sunday which will usher in a strong northerly wind and cooler temperatures. On Sunday we will have sustained wind speeds from 20-30mph and with temperatures only warming into the upper 40s and lower 50s it will feel pretty chilly all day.
Next week looks to be quite with gradually warming temperatures and sunny conditions.
** This is the last day of Severe Weather Awareness week and it is only appropriate for today’s weather that today’s topic is how to stay informed and up to date. Click here
for ways to stay up to date and click here
for more information about the FOX 34 MyWarn App which is essentially like a modern day weather radio. Year round we have links to severe weather safety tips in the weather section of myfoxlubbock.com and under the weather tab on the FOX 34 News app.**
Stay tuned to us tonight either on TV, Radio, here in the Weather Blog or with our Facebook and Twitter accounts as we will continue to keep you informed on any potential storms across the region. Caitlin will have all the forecast updates for you this weekend.