Storms this evening, cold front tomorrow with more storms possible

Reported by: Rudy Pearce
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Updated: 7/25/2013 5:22 pm
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Showers and thunderstorms formed along an outflow boundary which was based around the US84 corridor this afternoon. This activity is slowly moving to the northeast with some of the strongest storms becoming severe. Click here for a look at the 24 hour rainfall totals from the West Texas Mesonet sites. The main concerns with any of the strong storms we see this afternoon and evening will be large hail and strong wind gusts. You can watch all the storms form and move across the region with our live streaming radar below.
I used the term “outflow boundary” in the previous paragraph and that is essentially like a smaller version of a cold front formed from rain cooled air from a large storm or complex of storms. The outflow boundary which helped ignite the storms this afternoon came from storms that moved across the northern South Plains and Rolling Plains this morning. While it did help ignite storms this afternoon it also helped to limit storm development, along with a thick layer of clouds overhead, across our northern counties as we were quite a bit cooler than originally anticipated.

It still looks like an upper-level disturbance will move southeast across the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma and our northeastern counties this evening. While environmental parameters are still in place for storms, and possible severe storms at that, it still remains to be seen how much the cooler air and cloud coverage will limit storm development. If storms are able to form they could quickly become severe producing hail larger than 1” in diameter and wind gusts in excess of 60mph.

What happens tonight in regards to the storms will play a key role in our weather setup tomorrow. It still looks like a cold front is on pace to enter our northern counties tomorrow morning and clear our southern counties by later tomorrow afternoon. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms along the front in the morning but it is more likely that storms won’t develop along the front until the afternoon which would be across our southern counties at that point. Behind the front drier and slightly cooler air will move in diminishing any shower activity.

There are a few questions about this weekend as some models keep rain chances for us on Saturday and especially on Sunday. Since this is somewhat of a new trend and some models still keep us dry we will just wait and see how tomorrow shapes up as that will play a role in our weather this weekend.

High pressure will build back in at the beginning of next week helping to clear us out and warm us up. A cold front will approach the area by midweek but it currently does not look like it will make it down this far.
 
 
 

I will have an update on the storms across the area tonight on the News at Nine as well as break down the rest of the forecast for you. Matt will have a complete updated forecast for you tomorrow morning including the latest on the location of the cold front and its impact on us.
-Rudy
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FOX 34 Lubbock Weather Blog
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