Potential storms tomorrow with some possibly becoming severe

Reported by: Rudy Pearce
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Updated: 3/07/2013 8:58 pm
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It was a breezy and warm day across the South Plains with all of us warming into the 70s this afternoon with wind speeds about 15-25mph. Below is a look at some of our morning lows and afternoon highs from today.


Moisture will continue to increase across the region tonight leading to more clouds and milder temperatures tomorrow morning. We will start off tomorrow morning in the upper 40s and lower 50s and even with partly cloudy conditions throughout the day we should still warm back into the mid 70s thanks in part to a strong south wind. Wind speeds for most of us will be about 15-25mph but across our western counties the wind will be stronger with gusts possibly reaching 40mph at times. A dryline will setup across the region and along this boundary we could see a few showers and storms form in the afternoon. While the chance for this happening is not that great, if any storms were to form at this time they could quickly become strong or even severe. In fact the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted most of the South Plains under a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for that reason. That risk is shown in the graphic below. 

The main concerns with any severe storms tomorrow will be the potential for large hail and strong wind gusts. That being said we will not completely rule out the potential for a few isolated tornadoes to form although that threat does not look too great. One thing we will be monitoring tomorrow will be the amount of clouds overhead and the temperatures. If we see more sunshine and thus warmer temperatures our chances for storms and in this case also severe storms will be higher while if we see more clouds and cooler temperatures then our chances won’t be that good. It should be noted that currently only a very few models show storms forming tomorrow afternoon.

We will have a better chance for showers and storms to form late tomorrow night into early Saturday morning as a Pacific Cold Front moves from west to east across the region. As this front moves through a line of showers and storms will likely develop along the leading edge of the boundary and move from west to east. Behind the front drier air will move in ending any rain. All rain should end by early Saturday morning and we will be left with a strong west wind and slightly cooler day.

A stronger push of cold air moves in on strong northerly winds on Sunday with temperatures only warming into the 50s Sunday afternoon. We quickly warm back into the 70s with sunny conditions by the middle of next week.

** This week is Severe Weather Awareness Week and each day we have talked about a different topic pertaining to Severe Weather. All along we planned for today’s topic to be about the Severe Weather Outlooks produced by the Storm Prediction Center. It just so happens that they issued a Slight Risk for Severe Weather for tomorrow for us as explained above. The Storm Prediction Center issues these outlooks for three days in advance, the next day, and the day of. The outlooks refer to a chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point within the highlighted area. They factor in the probability for severe hail, severe wind, and tornadoes and from that determine whether to issue a slight, moderate or high risk. These probability values are different depending on which day the outlook is for. If you want to see the chart breaking these down for Day 1, click here, Day 2, click here, and Day 3, click here. Essentially what you need to know is whenever you are in an area where an outlook as been issued, you need to stay weather aware for that time period and be ready to take action. You can look at it as Outlooks being a precursor to Watches while Watches are a precursor to Warnings. Year round we have links to severe weather safety tips in the weather section of myfoxlubbock.com and under the weather tab on the FOX 34 News app.**

I will have the latest information on the potential for Severe Weather tomorrow tonight on the News at Nine. Matt will have an updated forecast for you tomorrow morning.
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