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ONE MORE WARM DAY: This is the warmest morning we've seen in some time, temperature generally in the 40s and 50s across the area. High clouds have been streaming overhead, ahead of the large upper-level storm system that'll be the main factor in our weather this weekend. Right now that upper low is over southern California.
It'll warm to the 70s today, gusty SW/W wind 12-25mph with occasionally higher gusts. The record for today's date is 76 and some model runs warm it that far. The clouds will probably keep it a few degrees below the record.
COLDER WEATHER: A cold front will move through late tonight. The wind will shift out of the N/NE 5-15mph, low temp in the lower 30s. Tomorrow will stay in the mid-upper 40s during the afternoon, about 50 Saturday, lower 40s behind another front Sunday. This clearly isn't the strongest front over the past month, but it'll will be a big change from the mild week we've had.
As the upper-level storm system nears our region showers will first develop across Far West Texas and Southern New Mexico tomorrow. We might see some rain in the afternoon...the best timeframe for rain is late tomorrow night through mid-day Saturday. Computers show good lift from the storm system and atypically high moisture content in the atmosphere. A few lingering showers are possible late Saturday. If and showers develop early Sunday morning it could include some snow, but this doesn't look too likely.
Rain totals will likely range from 1/4" to 1/2", though several computer runs paint more than an inch. December is, on average, one of our driest month. Picking up this much rain will be great, especially with most of the harvest here complete.
NEXT WEEK: Good travel weather, lots of sunshine. A cold front will probably move through early on Christmas Day, dropping the high close to 50.
SEVERE WEATHER: There is a risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday, shown in yellow below, running from about San Antonio to Dallas over to western Alabama.
Rudy will have the latest on this rain setup here later today.