Chance for thunderstorms, possibly severe, late today

Reported by: Matt Ernst
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Updated: 3/08/2013 10:47 am
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update 10:47 a.m.

No change to the forecast...few notes here:
- As seen in blog entry below, moisture continue to return with 50-degree dew points off of the Caprock now. Dew points should rise into this afternoon.
- We're seeing clearing now over the western South Plains, which will spread over more of the area. This will help to get the temp into the mid-70s.
- We'll have to watch how much clearing and how warm it gets over the western South Plains. A weak dry line may develop, with moisture pooled east of it. This is where isolated storms could fire up late this afternoon, 3p to 5p. While the chance for storms isn't great during this time, the environment will allow any storms that form to quickly grow.
- Best timeframe for storms still looks like 8p to 4a.

Not much, if any, change in the mid-day severe outlook from SPC:

 
 
 


There could be a thunderstorm around during the Tech Baseball game, but no way to know where storms will develop right now. If storms do move through Lubbock it might not be until after 10 p.m. Just keep in mind if storms get going later today the could turn severe.




posted Friday morning
MILD START: Low-level moisture is returning to the area, dew points in the 40s and even a 50-degree dew point at Snyder at 6 a.m. We need the moisture for showers and thunderstorms later today. As a result, it's a milder morning. Here are the dew points to watch through the day:

 
 
 


Today it'll reach the mid 70s over most of the area, likely a few degrees cooler to the east, with deeper moisture. It'll be mostly cloudy to overcast early, with some breaks in the clouds by the afternoon. Here are the projected highs:

 
 
 


The gusty S/SE wind pumping in that moisture will set the stage for possibly a few isolated storms beteen 4 and 7 p.m. Limiting factors are it won't be too terribly warm and the dew point just to about 50 or so. If a storm can form it could become strong, but again...the chance is lower this afternoon.

As the big storm system approaches from the west it'll draw even more moisture into the area, possibly 50-degree dew points west of Lubbock. The storm system will also bring better lift to the atmosphere, which is why the best timeframe for storms should be about 8 p.m. through 4 a.m. Initially storms may be isolated in nature, before evolving into a line moving east. Behind the line of storms it'll turn windy and drier. The chance for storms late today is 40 percent.

SEVERE SETUP: The Storm Prediction Center has continued the outlook from yesterday, keeping most of our area in the highlight for a risk for severe storms, shown in yellow:

 
 
 


This also runs into the Permian Basin and north to the Panhandle. The main threat is hail greater than one inch in diamter. It's possible some storms could produce gusts over 60mph. With the difference between air temp and dew point low, the bases of the clouds will be pretty low. With a good degree of shear, including some decent shear in the lowest few thousand feet, an isolated tornado is possible.

WEEKEND: By tomorrow morning the rain will be exiting to the east and we'll have a gusty west wind, 20-30mph. The sky will clear, high temp in the low-mid 60s. A cold front will move through early Sunday, bringing a gusty north wind and cooler air.

NEXT WEEK: It looks like the weather will take spring break, lots of sunshine and a quiet pattern, making it back to the 70s by mid-week.

 
 
 


Be sure to check back here for updates through the day. We'll also have updates on FOX 34 and our radio stations as needed if severe weather develops. Click here - for more on ways to stay up to date.

A great tool to use is the FOX 34 MyWarn app. It is a pay app, but it's like a weather radio that follows you. It only alerts you if you are in a watch or warning. Click here - for more on the app.
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