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There is a good chance for thunderstorms late today into tonight, some turning severe. The overall severe risk has shifted a little farther south than yesterday. Be sure you check back with us for updates today and tonight.
At mid-day we've got the temp in the upper 70s to low 80s, dew point in the 60s, meaning a lot of humidity is in place for South Plains standards. As it warms to the upper 80s to low 90s we'll have a good amount of surface instability. What's different today from yesterday is a front will be drifting slowly south, likely winding up somewhere over the southern Panhandle. This boundary, and also possibly a few outflows elsewhere in the area, help organize the lower levels, increasing rotation for supercells.
The mid-day Storm Prediction Center outlook highlights a risk for severe storms across all of our area, shown in yellow:
The SPC outlook text mentions an enhanced risk for severe storms across NE New Mexico, the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Main risks today will be gusts to 75mph and hail to around 2" diameter. Near these boundaries a few tornadoes will be possible. It looks like the low-level helicity, or tendency for wind to rotate with height, increases this evening. We're not expecting an all-out tornado outbreak, but a few tornadoes are possible.
A few storms could develop at any time after 3 p.m., though the thunderstorm chance increases this evening into tonight. We'll first watch for a few isolated storms late this afternoon into this evening. Then a complex of storms should develop across NE New Mexico and the Panhandle and spread southeast into our area. We could still have storms in the area after Midnight.
We expect watches and warnings later today. Our full weather staff will be working this. Look for a complete forecast update here later today.