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There is the risk for thunderstorms, some severe, across the area today. With so many outdoor activities, including high school games and the Fair, please make sure you have a good way of staying updated on the weather. Please share this blog with others who may not stay up on the weather. Here are a few quick reminders.
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THIS MORNING: Moisture is returning to the area, with the dew point in the 50s across most of our area, 60s just SE of here. This number will climb, meaning it'll get more humid through the day with a gusty S/SE wind at 15-25mph. A powerful upper-level storm system is centered across Utah, moving east. Ahead of it a weak disturbance has produced a few light showers across Eastern New Mexico. A brief shower is possible west of Lubbock this morning.
THIS AFTERNOON: It'll warm to the low to mid 80s. Combined with dew points in the 60s this will produce moderate to strong surface instability. The approaching storm system from the west will increase the lift across the region.
Most models show storms developing somewhere across Eastern New Mexico between Noon and 2p Central. Storms should expand eastward through the afternoon. At this point storms should be more isolated, which raises concern for severe weather. With moderate to strong instability and increasing shear, or twisting of the wind with height, these storms will be able to produce large hail, strong wind and possibly a tornado or two.
It's roughly 3 p.m. to 10 p.m. when most of our area has a chance for thunderstorms. Any storms around during this time will have the potential to turn severe. There may be a brief lull in storms activity late tonight...a few computer models show this. Below is the early-morning severe weather outlook, highlighting roughly Lubbock and points north. Early today the strongest severe parameters are up in the Panhandle. But we need to see how the small-scale features unfold by the afternoon.
The chance for rain and storms gets better after 11 p.m. running into the early morning hours, as the cold front moves across the area. This should be a larger line of storms. The severe weather risk will be lower. There could still be some gusts to 60mph and some hail, but not as great of a severe risk. Showers and storms should clear the area through the morning, possibly some rain hanging on through mid-day Saturday around Snyder to Wichita Falls.
REST OF THE FORECAST: Cooler mornings this weekend with drier air in place. Lots of sunshine and quiet weather next week.
Check back here for updates through the day. Hope you have a great weekend.