Thunderstorms possible later this week

Reported by: Matt Ernst
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Updated: 3/27/2013 6:21 am
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WARMER TODAY: The south breeze has stayed up last night into this morning. Combine with clouds in place it's a lot warmer than the past few mornings, generally 40s across the area to start the day. The weather map is pretty quiet with a pretty flat west-to-east zonal flow aloft over our region. There will be some weak riding...or higher pressure building in during the afternoon, helping to warm the afternoon. Today's pattern is pretty quiet, but it'll be changing in the coming days.

Today's high near 79, mostly sunny and breezy. Wind S/SW 12-25mph today. Here are the projected highs for the area:


NEXT FEW DAYS: With a large storm system edging closer to the West Coast by the weekend, low-level moisture will slowly improve across the region. But it's going to take a while to get that good humidity in place, the dew point is in the 30s this morning all the way down to the Gulf Coast. We should see 40-degree dew points in place tomorrow, maybe near 50 off of the Caprock. Then better moisture will be in place by Friday.

With minor upper-level disturbances moving overhead, providing lift in the atmosphere, we could see a few thunderstorms next few days. The cap might hold tomorrow, but a few higher-resolution models do show an isolated storm or two late tomorrow. We've got a 10 percent chance for a storm tomorrow.

With better moisture in place and perhaps better lift the t-storm chance is at 20 percent Friday. Still not great, but slightly better.

WEEKEND: Models show the moisture being pushed east of our area into this weekend. We can't rule out an isolated storm well east of Lubbock, but the weekend looks dry. Easter Sunday should be nice, breezy with the high in the mid-70s.

NEXT WEEK: The moisture should be in place Monday, which will lead to a chance for thunderstorms late in the day. We may have a front moving in from the north to help lift the atmosphere. Behind that front it'll turn cooler Tuesday. Right now the rain setup looks pretty good Tuesday. But it's so far out, if that storm system goes farther north we'll get wind instead of rain.


The chance for rain isn't good on any one day, but hopefully we'll get some much-needed rain on at least one of these days. Rudy will have the latest look at this data later today.
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