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QUIET SUMMER WEATHER: There won't be much changing day to day in our weather. Mild mornings and hot afternoons will be the rule. It'll be pretty similar to what we saw this weekend. A large upper-level ridge of high pressure is the cause for this typical Texas summer weather. Afternoon and evening storms can be expected across the mountains of New Mexico, but the steering flow should be too weak to get them to Texas. There will also be some scattered showers and storms over Central and South Texas today.
This afternoon it'll reach the mid 90s around Lubbock and the central South Plains, few degrees hotter off the Caprock and a little cooler to the northwest. Wind S/SE 10-16mph.
Tomorrow and Wednesday will be pretty similar. Models do show a front making it to perhaps the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma, staying well north of here. That front will lead to some showers and storms, but looks like they'll stay well northeast of here. It should be slightly hotter Thursday-Saturday as the ridge gets a little stronger.
NEXT WEEK: The differences between today and Friday are small. Both the GFS and European models have been showing greater changes for next week, with a disturbance moving from the Deep South across Texas. This would mean cooler, wetter weather for the region if this pans out. That's a big if, and right now it looks like most of the rain would stay south of our area. We're still about a week away and still in this terrible drought. But that pattern change will have our attention in the new data over the next few days.
Tropical Storm Chantal has formed in the Atlantic. The forecast track from the National Hurricane Center takes it toward the Dominican Republic later this week. Movement to the Gulf or East Coast both in play right now.
Have a great day. I hope you enjoyed the Independence Day weekend. I had a lot of fun downtown both the 3rd and 4th. Rudy will have a full update to the forecast later today.