Much colder later this week

Reported by: Matt Ernst
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Updated: 11/18/2013 7:18 am
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Major changes are on the way for the end of the week into the weekend, turning much colder. More on that a little further down...first the forecast for the next few days.

A minor disturbance over Arizona and NW Mexico is sending mid- and upper-level clouds across the region this morning. The temperature is relatively mild, in the 40s and upper 30s. The clouds will continue off-and-on through the day, topping out near 63 in Lubbock, wind E/SE 5-15mph. A southwest breeze will kick up tomorrow and Wednesday, helping to warm it back into the 70s. The weak upper disturbance passing across the region will lead to a partly cloudy sky tomorrow, with some clouds hanging around into Wednesday.

BIG CHANGE: The various computer models have come into better agreement on the setup for later this week into the weekend, but this far out there are still some big questions.

A strong front should arrive some time Thursday. The newest data this morning speeds up arrival from what models have shown past few days. Thursday could very well be a day where it's cold and windy north of Lubbock and still reaches the 50s across the southern half of the area. Once the front gets here it'll be windy and the temperature will quickly drop.

Some showers could develop as the front moves through Thursday, then some showers behind the front. We'll add a slight chance for showers to the forecast. By Thursday night into Friday morning it might get cold enough for some wintry mix. The latest GFS model's forecast soundings show the cold air shallow, with a warm layer aloft, which might mean freezing rain or sleet...but if any falls models show light precip.

It stays cold into the weekend, possibly with a few showers around Friday. The lift looks weaker Saturday, mainly just clouds around. But then as the large upper low off the West Coast finally approaches, there could be some more showers Sunday into Monday. Again at this point the exact type of precip is uncertain. A few models are keeping it in the 30s Sunday...while the European model was frigid for the past few days but this morning has backed off and shows Sunday's high near 50. If it does get cold enough for frozen precip the forecast sounding looks like more like rain/snow or snow.

Most important part of this entry right is going to get colder and windy second half of this week into the weekend. Whether we see any precip is uncertain. And if we do see precip, the exact type is uncertain. It's simply how winter weather goes across West way to know critical differences of a few degrees five to seven days out, but something we'll watch through the week.


Rudy will have a full update later today. Have a great Monday!
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