Better setup for rain tomorrow

Reported by: Matt Ernst
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Updated: 8/13/2013 7:10 am
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THIS MORNING: It's mainly clear around Lubbock with possibly a few showers north of Lubbock. We're seeing some faint radar returns. If anything is falling over the northern South Plains it's light. But there are scattered thunderstorms in the Panhandle, up around Amarillo. Radar is also showing these storms kicking out a few outflow boundaries south...like a mini cold front. These outflow boundaries are something to watch later in the day for storm development. An actual front is up in the Panhandle, helping with those storms to the north.

Here is a live stream of the radar:


Live streaming video by Ustream
TODAY: It'll be hot, but hot like the last few days...not 102 or 105. It should warm to the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, around 92 in Lubbock. Wind direction will be variable, because of the outflow boundaries moving into part of the area. 

More importantly, those boundaries could aid in thunderstorm development. We'll keep a 30% chance for thunderstorms today. Not everyone will see the rain, but by the afternoon you can expect a few storms around the area. The rain chance will actually get better late tonight, some of these downpours heavy. A few of these storms could produce strong wind. It'll be cooler up around Amarillo with the front south of there.

TOMORROW: The front will move south of Lubbock, leaving us with a humid and cooler atmosphere. Tomorrow's high will only be in the mid 80s, mostly cloudy. It looks like tomorrow brings the best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. It may not be rain for everyone, but a good number of us should pick up some pretty good rain.

REST OF THE WEEK: The large ridge of high pressure should stay over the SW United States, which is good news because we might see a few more upper-level disturbances moving across our region. When the ridge is over the Southwest it places our region in the NW to SE flow aloft...a good setup for late-day thunderstorms here. Models don't show a real strong sign of rain Thursday or Friday, but we'll probably see at least one more disturbance during that timeframe, so we'll keep a slight chance for storms through the end of the week. It'll turn a little warmer and mostly sunny by the weekend.

HOW MUCH RAIN: When you add up a few days of scattered showers and storms we should generally see 1/2" to 1" of rain by the end of the week. The map below from the Weather Service shows five-day rain totals 1/2" in dark blue, 1" in lighter blue. It's a pretty good setup for rain here, but clearly the heavier rain will be across Oklahoma, where a flash flood watch is posted.

 
 
 


Have a great day. Rudy will have a complete update to the forecast later this afternoon.
-Matt
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