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THIS MORNING: There's been an outflow boundary moving from north to south across the area...a boundary shifting the wind out of the north and kicking up some gusts. Earlier there were some gusts around 40-50mph over the southern Panhandle, gusts generally about 30-35mph for most of the area. The boundary has also tried to develop a few showers, but most have been light. Through 4 a.m. the only TTU Mesonet site reporting any rain was Dimmitt at 0.12". An isolated shower is possible this morning, mainly just gusty wind.
THIS AFTERNOON: The clouds should thin through the day, with the wind shifting from the NE to the SE around 10-15mph. It is going to be hot again, up around 102 in Lubbock. Yesterday's high was 104, Wednesday 107...so it's a downward trend but still plenty hot. There could be an isolated storm somewhere over the western South Plains but the chance is low.
PATTERN CHANGE: The large upper-level ridge will continue moving west this weekend, eventually building into the NW United States next week. A large trough will develop over the Midwest/Great Lakes and expand over the eastern half of the nation. It'll be a clear-cut contrast, really hot west, much cooler east. This is good news for us, we expect 80s for high most if not all of next week.
This pattern also will support at least a chance for rain and storms here. By tomorrow afternoon into the evening there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Storms could develop in the afternoon but it looks more likely that showers and storms develop over the higher terrain of New Mexico and Colorado, then move this way. There is a similar setup Sunday afternoon and evening.
There are still some differences on the specifics for next week...which determines which day has the best shot at showers or storms. But the overall setup supports at least a chance for thunderstorms late each day. There could be some rain or storms around during the Fourth of July, but it's too far away to know for sure.
Have a great weekend. Rudy will have an update to the forecast later today, Caitlin will have your forecast this weekend.