Chance for thunderstorms today, extended hot pattern ahead

Reported by: Matt Ernst
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Updated: 6/21/2012 6:28 am
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BREAK FROM THE HEAT: It'll top out today in the 80s today beneath a partly cloudy sky, close to 80 from Dimmitt to Tulia, 86 in Lubbock and lower 90s Hobbs and Seminole.

We are watching a front to the north that's slowly dropping south. It might be the mechanism we need to provide enough lift for a few thunderstorms. We do have the moisture, with dew points in the mid 60s. It's a 30 percent chance for storms today. Severe threat is low and rain totals won't be great. Hopefully we'll see some rain because the chance really drops off next few days.

Here is a live stream of the radar:


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TOMORROW: It'll get hotter, high near 92 in Lubbock, somewhat humid. An isolated shower or storm is possible but the chance is low. More sunshine tomorrow.

HOT PATTERN: An upper-level ridge of high pressure centered over the southwestern United States and northwest Mexico will build this way late this week. That ridge means sunny and hot weather. It's summer in Texas and these ridges like our great state...they sometimes don't leave for a good while.

It looks like this will be the case, with the GFS, Euro and Canadian models all building the ridge across the central United States this weekend into next week. The Euro goes out 10 days, GFS 16 days and the past several runs have kept the ridge in our region through next week. In fact, the hottest days of our forecast appear to be next Tuesday through Thursday.

We expect lower 90s tomorrow, about 96 Saturday, 98 Sunday then around 100 next Monday through Thursday, plenty of sunshine each day. Morning low should drop to the upper 60s next week.

 
 
 


TROPICS: Tropical storm Chris is out in the northern Atlantic, no threat to land. Models are showing potential tropical development by early next week in the northeast Gulf, which could bring some heavy rain to parts of Florida, then moving to the Atlatnic Seaboard. Or...a few other dynamic models build that system west across the Gulf. It'll be something to watch in the coming days.

 
 
 


Have a great day! Rudy will have a full update to the forecast later today. I'll be out tomorrow and Monday, Chase will be filling in. I'll be back Tuesday.

-Matt
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