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HOT PATTERN: It's a mild start this morning with mid to upper 70s across the area. There are a few clouds moving down into Central Texas, leaving our area clear. After a high of 103 in Lubbock yesterday it should be a couple degrees hotter, around 105 in Lubbock today. Wind SW/S 10-18mph, sunset at 9:02 p.m.
The sprawling ridge of high pressure...the big heat bubble...will be over our region next few days, so there won't be much change. Each morning in the 70s, each afternoon topping out a few degrees over 100. We will not get the records, today's record high is 112, tomorrow's 114. Because the high pressure dome is so strong here we won't get a good influx of moisture from Hurricane Cosme in the Eastern Pacific, that system is just moving west across the open waters. The ridge will move farther northwest into the Pacific Northwest by this weekend.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: The weekend won't be quite as hot, but still above the average high. We should see a few more clouds. The GFS model continues the trend of developing a few showers or storms somewhere in the region, but the European model is drier. No good rain chance at this point this weekend.
It's a similar trend next week. The GFS is quite bullish with the rain potential through the week, while the European is much drier. The Canadian model runs through next Monday and also shows the possibility for rain. It looks like pattern of a large ridge over the Pac NW and a trough diving down across the Great Lakes and Plains could bring us some rain at some point next week, but where and how good of a chance are questions still to be resolved. For now the forecast is cooler with more clouds. We'll wait for better agreement in the guidance before getting too excited over the prospects for rain.
Have a great day. Rudy will have a full update to the forecast later today.