Better setup for rain next few days

Reported by: Matt Ernst
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Updated: 7/14 5:42 am
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RAIN LAST NIGHT: There were scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday into early this morning across the Panhandle. Parts of the northern edge of our area got a little rain, but most missed out...Dimmitt with 0.05" of rain. Compare this to some 1" to 1.5" rains farther north.

TODAY: The showers and storms yesterday formed along a weak surface boundary...or essentially a small front ahead of the main front. This boundary is stretched west to east across our area this morning, though the showers have for the most part diminished. It is going to heat up, the temperature well into the 90s today, wind S/SE 5-15mph. With it getting this warm, some humidity in place, and that boundary, we should see some showers and storms around the area late this afternoon into this evening.

Then later tonight into early tomorrow morning the main front will push in from the Panhandle. This will bring a better chance for showers and storms, some producing heavy rain.

NEXT FEW DAYS: The front will be somewhere in the region through at least late Wednesday. This, combined with some decent upper-level support and good moisture here at the surface, means a decent chance for rain in the coming days. Late tomorrow into early Wednesday looks like a good chance, even better chance heading into Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted our area for the risk for severe storms Wednesday.

Behind the good rain setup Wednesday we should stay mostly cloudy and cool, chance for a few showers Thursday.

This map from NOAA shows an estimate of rain over next five days. Lighter blues suggest at least an inch, purple 1.5" to 2", with some 4+" projections to our east over the Red River:

 
 
 


WEEKEND: By the weekend guidance shows a real strong upper-level ridge developing across the region. If things play out the way it looks right now we could be up around 100. This ridge looks stronger than the one that kept it warm here past few weeks.

 
 
 


Have a great day. Caitlin will have a full update to the forecast later today.
-Matt
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