Chance for storms this weekend, Isaac eyes SE United States

Reported by: Matt Ernst
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Updated: 8/24/2012 7:16 am
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OVERNIGHT RAIN: Pretty good showers rolled across the western half of the area. Looks like Lubbock's airport picked up 0.51" yesterday into this morning. Here are other totals from the TTU Mesonet:

 MORTON               0.61 IN 
 HOBBS                0.57 IN 
 DENVER CITY          0.35 IN 
 REESE CENTER         0.32 IN 
 TATUM                0.29 IN 
 PLAINS               0.28 IN 
 ABERNATHY            0.26 IN 
 ANTON                0.24 IN 
 LEVELLAND            0.22 IN 
 SEMINOLE             0.20 IN 

 SUNDOWN              0.19 IN 
 SLATON               0.17 IN 
 WOLFFORTH            0.16 IN 
 OLTON                0.12 IN 
 O'DONNELL            0.08 IN 
 SEAGRAVES            0.06 IN 
 TAHOKA               0.06 IN 
 AMHERST              0.05 IN 
 LAMESA               0.02 IN 
 PLAINVIEW            0.02 IN 
 DORA                 0.01 IN 

TODAY: We begin with a mostly cloudy sky. We'll see more breaks into the afternoon. However, models have overdone the clearing the past few days, which is why we've been forecasting the temp too high. We expect upper 80s to low 90s across the area with the clouds and moisture in the air. If clouds clear earlier we could easily hit 92 or 94.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Coverage will be limited, any storms that do develop could produce a quick 1/4" of rain. Wind S/SE 10-20mph.

Here is a live stream of radar:

Streaming by Ustream
TOMORROW: A sun-cloud mix for the afternoon. The rain chance looks a little better tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. The setup is a big upper-level disturbance across the Southwest moving east. It's sending these impulses through our region, helping trigger showers and storms. Until it clears the region we should see at least a few storms each day.

SUNDAY: Models show a front pushing into the Panhandle. It's tough for fronts to make it through our area in August. We did have that happen last weekened, which is why we saw so much rain. That front probably stays north, leading to just a slight chance for storms here, high in the upper 80s to low 90s.

NEXT WEEK: High pressure builds in, which should shut off the day-to-day slight thunderstorm chance. It won't get too hot, pretty close to the average.


TROPICS: The focus is on tropical storm Isaac. As of 7 a.m. CDT the max sustained winds are 50mph. The storm center is about 220 miles SE of Port Au Prince, Haiti.


The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (above) has been shifted west. It's more important this far out to focus on the forecast cone, which has landfall Tuesday or Wednesday from Louisiana to Florida, centered at about the Alabama coast.

Several models moved west yesterday, though some of the early-morning models are a little farther west. If the storm can avoid most of Hispanola and just jump over Cuba it'll have more time to strengthen. Also, the farther west if stays from Florida the better setup there is to strengthen over the warm Gulf water. The models that come out mid-day today should be a bit better after ingesting better data yesterday. The NHC track shows landfall as a weak hurricane, but that could change a bit if this storm does get over more of the open water of the Gulf.

It's still a few days away from any certainty with landfall, but it'll be something to watch for that part of the nation.

Have a great weekend! Rudy will have a full update to the forecast later today, Caitlin will have the updates through the weekend.


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Wind: SSW 13 mph
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Low: 57°

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