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RAINFALL: Another night, another round of thunderstorms. Difference between last night and the night prior was the initial organization these storms had. They produced some larger hail and strong wind up in the Panhandle. The leading storm found some better oganization in Hale County. There were reports of a wall cloud just NW of Abernathy, the Weather Service issued a torando warning. Later when the storm neared the Lubbock airport some funnels were observed. There aren't any reports of tornado touchdowns. This storm did bring gusty wind and some small hail to the city.
After the morning rainfall, this storm brought the day's total at Lubbock's airport to 0.83", just 0.05" of the daily record. Today 0.11" has fallen at the airport. The greatest total since Midnight on the TTU Mesonet is Abernathy, at 2.28". Next on the list is Ralls 1.10", Post 0.88", Lake Alan Henry 0.77" and Slaton 0.76".
I don't think I've had enough coffee to try to go through the numbers to separate the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning rain from the Wednesday night-Thursday morning rain totals. To make it easier, here are the top 72-hour totals:
Lake Alan Henry 2.68"
Near Texas Tech 2.38"
TODAY: The back edge of the rain is across the SE South Plains this morning, moving SE toward the Big Country. Rest of the area it's a humid morning, temp in the 60s with the dew point pretty close, leading to relative humidity between 95 and 100 percent. It'll warm to around 90 this afternoon, partly cloudy. With the humitiy it'll feel pretty muggy, wind SE 5-12mph.
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but I don't think it's a great chance. If storms can get going they'll bring the risk of strong wind.
TONIGHT: This is the better timeframe for storms, late tonight into early tomorrow morning. The various models have a pretty good sign that storms will develop way up across the Central Plains this afternoon and spread south. The big question is just where that complex of storms will move. Some models show it across the eastern half of our area, other models show over toward Wichita Falls. With these differences we'll keep a chance for storms, knowing at least some where in the region storms should develop, not certain yet it'll be in our area.
There is the risk for some severe storms, primary threat being the gusty wind...possibly also some hail. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted most of our area up into the Central Plains with risk for severe storms, shown in yellow:
NEXT FEW DAYS: A few isolated storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon, high near 90. With high pressure expanding across the region this weekend the rain chance gets lower. We can't completely rule out a shower or storm, but most likely it'll stay dry. The ridge isn't incredibly strong, so it should just get hotter by a few degrees...low 90s to begin next week.
Have a great day. Rudy will have a full update to the forecast later today.