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updated 9:57 a.m.
It was a cold start this morning on the South Plains. The official recording site at the airport dropped to 31. Elsewhere around Lubbock County it dropped to 26 at the Texas Tech Mesonet site near campus, 28 Wolfforth, 29 Reese Center, 31 Slaton.
Here are the lowest readings around the area:
TODAY: It's colder this morning than yesterday morning with a lighter wind. Most of the area is starting with a freeze, with the temp as low as 19 at 4 a.m. at Muleshoe...most of the area 20s and low 30s. A nice sunny afternoon is ahead, southerly wind at 5-12mph helping to warm it back to the mid to upper 60s.
Dry air will still be in place tonight, dew point in the 20s or maybe even teens. While it won't be as cold as this morning, a freeze is expected west and north of Lubbock, mid 30s in the city.
NEXT FEW DAYS: The upper-level pattern will be pretty quiet. There will be a disturbance passing to our south, which may bring a little rain to Southwest Texas, but should just provide a few high clouds here tomorrow. The breeze will kick up from the SW 12-22mph tomorrow afternoon, but should relax some for the football games.
Saturday looks great, reaching the low to mid 70s. There will be a front pushing into at least the northern parts of our area Saturday afternoon. It'll warm south of the front, but should be a little cooler in the Panhandle. If the front pushes far enough south we might see the wind shift out of the north during the second half of the Tech game, but it won't be anything dramatic. Here is the Tech forecast:
NEXT WEEK: More significant changes should arrive some time middle of next week. Both the GFS and European model show a strong upper-level storm system dropping over the Midwest. While it won't be coming straight this way, it will push a strong front through our area. For comparison purposes, we're starting today with about a 1028mb to 1030mb surface high. In the winter we look for higher pressure here at the surface for the cold air. Models right now show about a 1040mb surface high pushing across the Plains...so it should be a stronger push of cold air next week.
This said, it's about a week out, so the timing of the front will change a bit between now and then. We don't yet know if it'll be Tuesday night, Wednesday morning or Wednesday night when the front gets here. I do think the second half of next week will be colder. That front will bring a strong north wind when it arrives. The temperature should moderate some a couple days after the frontal passage. Another upper-level disturbance may arrive from the west, which could bring some precipitation. It's too far out for any confidence on that forecast.
Have a great day. Rudy will have a complete update to the forecast here later today.