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updated 9:53 a.m.
Good to see radar lighting up across the southwestern and southern South Plains this morning. Through 9:30 we've already picked up 3/4" of rain at Plains. These greater totals will be isolated, but will happen in the heavier downpours. General totals of about 1/4" can be expected. Severe threat is low, so there's no concern with these showers and storms...just welcome rain.
Here is the radar live stream:Streaming by UstreamStreaming RadarInteractive Radar
RAIN SETUP: It's a mild morning, mostly cloudy with the temp in the 50s and dew points in the 40s and 50s. We're looking west to thunderstorms across Eastern New Mexico this morning, which will keep slowly edging east.
As better lift moves across the region the rain and thunderstorm chance gets better here late morning into the afternoon. Though one storm in Eastern New Mexico has been severe the risk for severe weather is low today. An isolated storm could produce 1" hail or gusty wind but we're generally looking at rain and storms well below severe limits. The best timeframe is from late morning into the afternoon.
The rain and thunderstorm chance fades this evening. While we can't rule out some rain for the Relay for Life...the chance for rain during the event is lower than what we've got during the day today.
The temp won't move all that much today, high close to 70, wind NE 10-20 this morning...gradually diminishing through the afternoon.
TOMORROW: We'll see more sunshine than today, high near 76. There could be a few isolated storms by late afternoon. It's actually a pretty big difference in the computer models. Most keep it dry and mild. But the NAM and the high-resolution RPM models both show a line of storms by late afternoon. We'll keep an eye on it, but the chance doesn't look that good.
MOTHER'S DAY: A beautiful, mild Sunday is ahead...it should get to around 80 by the afternoon. Similar weather is expected Monday.
NEXT WEEK: The overall pattern should become active across the Plains. It's too far out for the small-scale specifics to know how things will play out within our area. The Gulf will open up and deeper moisture will be in place. Right now Tuesday looks to be a day for thunderstorms in our area. If the upper-level storm system to our southwest moves through slower or faster then it would change which day we'll have the chance for storms. It's too close of a call to tell if all of our area will be dry Wednesday or if the dry line will hold far enough west of some storms.
It's definitely something to keep an eye on. We could have some severe weather at some point next week into the following weekend.
Have a great weekend. Rudy will be in with your forecast update later today, Caitlin will have the updates this weekend.