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BUSTED FORECAST: We missed out. Much of the state has picked up good, soaking rain. Unfortunately, it looks like the storms downstate cut off some of the moisture return we needed for good rain. Nearly every forecast model for a few days showed a great setup for rain. We were wrong on the forecast.
TODAY: While that moisture return didn't pan out, we do have moisture locked in here at the surface. There is fog, drizzle and light rain out there this morning. The temp is in the 30s...could be some freezing drizzle over the SW Panhandle.
We could see a few isolated showers today, but not much is expected. Clouds will break from west to east, high in Lubbock near 47, N wind 10-18mph. With sun returning first to the west it'll warm first there:
NEXT FEW DAYS: Upper-level ridging returns, which will warm it back to the 70s tomorrow and Friday, 80s by the weekend. It'll also get breezy each afternoon beginning Friday. The weekend looks warmer, back to the 80s.
NEXT STORM CHANCE: The forecast models seem to be converging on Monday as our next shot at a few thunderstorms. Moisture should return to the area and the dry line could sharpen up. That's the boundary that separates dry air west, humid air east. It could be enough for some strong storms to set up...but it's too early to tell if the dry line will be in our area or well east of here.
Interesting trend...the European model has another push of cold air by middle of next week. GFS model isn't as aggressive. After blowing the one-day forecast I'm not going to jump on-board with any trend seven or eight days out. We are still stuck in this terrible drought and desperately need some good rainfall.
Have a great day. Rudy will have the next forecast update later today.