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THIS MORNING: What was just a few isolated thunderstorms around 2 a.m. blossomed into a good complex of thunderstorms over the southern Panhandle and northern South Plains with more storms devleoping southeast of Lubbock. All the showers and storms will move ESE, adding in most locations about 1/10" of rain. These storms should fade or move out of the area by 9 a.m., many locations missing out. Here is a live stream of the radar:Stream videos at Ustream
TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy through mid-day into this afternoon, high in Lubbock near 93. There should be a decent north-to-south temperature contrast, from the upper 80s Dimmitt to Silverton with 93 Lubbock and upper 90s Hobbs to Lamesa and Snyder. This is because a cold front is pushing into the Panhandle this afternoon. This morning there's a pretty good contrast of cooler air north and warmer air south along the front in Kansas. That front pushing south will bring more lift to the region, producing showers and storms.
The thunderstorms should develop this afternoon around Amarillo in the Panhandle. There could be isolated showers or storms here in the afternoon. Models show it has to get up to about 91 or 92 for storm development. The complex of storms this morning can be enough to limit storm development late in the day. But there is enough heat and moisture in the mix to warrant a few storms.
Storms that develop to our north will push south and could get down here this evening into late tonight. It's another night where storms could roll through here at 1 or 4 in the morning.
TOMORROW: It'll be cooler with more showers and storms in the area. We expect clouds around early in the day then some scattered storm development as things destabilize. It won't rain all day but there is the potential for a few storms most of the day.
BEST RAIN CHANCE: Late tomorrow night into Saturday is the most-favored timeframe for showers and thunderstorms, some heavy. The front will be in our area and models advertise a pretty good upper-level disturbance moving through. This will also keep Saturday cool, high in the mid 80s. Where it rains during the day it'll probably stay in the low 80s.
NEXT WEEK: Models do diverge on how quickly the front fades and an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds in. We'll watch the guidance in the coming days, but there might be some isolated showers and storms late each day through Tuesday. No terribly hot weather in the forecast.
Have a great day, check back here for updates. Rudy and Caitlin will have a full update to the forecast later today.