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THIS MORNING: It's closer to average this morning, much warmer than what we saw last week. A quick look at the surface map across the region and there's one thing that stands out...limited moisture statewide. Even going down to the Coastal Bend there are only dew points in the 40s and low 50s. You have to go to Brownsville to find 60-degree dew points. This is the limiting factor in our chance for rain next few days, the moisture down there isn't great. So as moisture does return to our area it'll won't be that deep. Across our area it's upper 40s to mid 50s this morning with a light ESE wind.
TODAY: High-level clouds will continue to stream overhead, high near 73 in Lubbock, wind SE 10-15mph. We'll watch a minor upper-level disturbance over New Mexico move this way. It could bring a few showers to the western South Plains by early to mid afternoon. As it gets warmer by the afternoon a few storms could fire in Eastern New Mexico then move onto the South Plains. While it's only a slight chance for this, any storms that do form will be high-based, because of the limited moisture. This brings the risk for strong wind gusts. If storms can form they'll fade this evening, sunset 8:34 p.m.
TOMORROW: Morning in the low 50s, afternoon high in the mid 80s. We'll see a little more sunshine than today. Though moisture will be limited there might be enough instability by late afternoon for a few isolated storms.
WEDNESDAY: There will be more moisture in place to start the day, low temp in the upper 50s to low 60s. Models show the dry line moving east of Lubbock by the afternoon. For areas on the Caprock it'll be a hot, dry, breezy day in the upper 80s to low 90s. But east of Lubbock deeper moisture should be in place. The heat and humidity, along with decent shear, will bring the risk for some severe thunderstorms. The placement of the dry line will determine where storms will develop, but it'll most likely be the Rolling Plains and points east.
LATER THIS WEEK: Another cold front will move through but it doesn't look anywhere as strong as the last few we've seen. Models are struggling with the placement of the upper-level storm system to the west. But we have seen for a few days moisture building in behind the front. With the storm system moving in from the west the rain chance looks pretty decent Friday into Saturday. We'll cautiously watch this sign....since we are still stuck in this drought. It should be cooler by the weekend.
Check back here for updates through the day. Rudy will have a full update to the forecast later this afternoon.