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updated 11:16 a.m.
The cold front has pushed farther south than expected by this point. But that doesn't mean all of our area will turn cold this afternoon. At 11 a.m. the front was south of Friona, Dimmitt and Tulia...with those cities in the 40s...and 70s from Muleshoe to Silverton. The front will probably edge a little farther south through the afternoon, but for the most part it will stall. The latest run of our in-house RPM model shows the 40s over the Panhandle with most of our area staying warm through mid-afternoon.
Here is the current temp map:
You'll know when the front moves past your area, north wind around 30mph with some dust and colder air. The front will make good progress south late this afternoon into this evening, with the temperature falling quickly across the area, including Lubbock.
The rain forecast is still on track...a slight chance for some rain late tonight into early tomorrow. Some sleet or snow could mix in north of Lubbock.
posted earlier this morning
THIS MORNING: It's a mild, humid, windy start to the day. The temp is in the 50s and 60s, with the dew point right there as well. We like to see those 60-degree dew points in the area. Unfortunately, the dry line will carry the humid air east and we're looking at a dry, windy day.
TODAY: High temp in Lubbock in the mid 70s, with 60s to the west and 80s east. Wind SW/W 20-30mph with gusts around 45mph. This is provided some clouds stay in place. If it clears out a good bit the wind could get as high as 35mph. Here are the projected highs:
STRONG FRONT: A cold front will move across the area late this afternoon into this evening. North wind 25-30mph with gusts to 40mph. Behind the front a few showers or weak thunderstorms are possible. With the temperature falling there could be some sleet or snow mixing in with any showers over the Panhandle and northern South Plains, north of Lubbock. No matter what kind of precip, it's only a slight chance for light shower or weak storms. Another freeze is on the way tonight, here are the projected lows:
TOMORROW: The wind will gradually back off by the afternoon, N wind 10-20mph, high in only the upper 40s to lower 50s, partly cloudy.
REST OF THE WEEK: A gradual warming trend is on the way, back into the 80s by the weekend. There might be enough moisture returning for a weak dry line setup...for a few isolated storms. But right now we don't see any strong signs of that.
TODAY'S SEVERE RISK: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a large risk for severe weather, shown in yellow below. An enhanced "moderate risk" for severe weather is in red, from Tulsa to Oklahoma City to Wichita Falls. Very large hail and tornadoes, possibly a few strong tornadoes, are possible today...especially in the red area:
Have a great day. Rudy will have a complete update to your forecast later today.