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updated 11:12 a.m.
The fog and drizzle has been more persistent than expected. We won't make the forecast high, with aras from Morton to Tulia still below freezing at 11 a.m. You can expect most of the area to only make the 40s this afternoon. The better rain is still expected for later tonight.
updated 8:46 a.m.
The NWS has relayed a report from Farwell of freezing drizzle there. The ground and roads are warm, so no significant problems. The temp has been below freezing about from Muleshoe to Tulia, so this is a possibility. You should slow down for wet roads rather than expecting any ice...ground is warm.
Also...the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the severe outlook well south of our area because of the strong front and colder air in place here.
SEVERE WEATHER YESTERDAY: We had severe thunderstorms late yesterday afternoon into the evening northeast of Lubbock, including a tornado just south of Silverton. Reports from storm chasers indicate it was a brief but organized tornado. It was on the ground for about five minutes. A metal barn was damaged just west of Caprock Canyon State Park.
Hail larger than golf balls fell in this area, as well. This map shows tornado report in red, large hail in green, strong wind in blue and yellow:
TODAY: The cold front has pushed through all of our area, we have a northeast wind. It's cool this morning, in the 30s and low 40s. That is also where the dew point is, so we have some fog and drizzle. This should transition to drizzle/light rain with some better lift approaching in the coming hours.
It'll stay cool today, high near 51 in Lubbock. Most forecast models keep the front well south of Lubbock, which keeps all of our area cool. Here is our forecast for today:
You can expect some drizzle or light rain off and on through the day. As a strong upper-level storm system approaches from the Four Corners the lift will increase across the region. The best rain chance for us will be late this afternoon through tomorrow morning. The clouds will stay in place all day.
The early-morning Storm Prediction Center outlook shows the risk for severe storms about from Denver City to New Home to Post and points south, in yellow below. This is where some hail stones to 1" diameter will be possible, but I think most of the severe weather will stay farther south...it'll be quite cool here. There is a tornado risk farther south, south of I-10 in West Texas.
HOW MUCH RAIN?: Moisture levels in the atmosphere are pretty high, leading to efficient rainfall. On the Caprock rain totals of 1/4" to 1/2" will be common, with some 3/4" totals possible. Off of the Caprock 3/4" to 1.5" will be possible. This is by mid-day tomorrow. Today's rain will actually be pretty light.
TONIGHT: It's going to get colder, low in Lubbock near 36 with rain continuing. There could be some snow mixing in across the SW Panhandle. No accumulations expected here, there could be some light snow accumulations north of Amarillo.
TOMORROW: Rain will fade from west to east through mid-day. It's not going to rain throughout that time, but it will be cloudy and cool. High tomorrow in only the upper 40s to low 50s.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: It'll warm to the upper 70s Friday, 80s return this weekend. The dry line may set up, leading to a few isolated storms east of Lubbock this weekend...though the signs aren't all that great. Things could turn a bit more active for our area early next week, we'll be watching the trends on this.
Have a great day. We'll have updates here as needed, Rudy will have your complete forecast later today.