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RAIN LAST NIGHT: The line of thunderstorms didn't produce too much strong wind or large hail. There were some severe storms across the western and southwestern South Plains and Southeast New Mexico. We picked up 0.44" of rain at Lubbock's airport. There were a number of other 1/2" rain totals. With a good deal of water throughout the various layers of the atmosphere we could see 1/2" to 1" rain totals where storms develop today.
TODAY: Like yesterday it'll start in the mid to upper 50s, high in the low to mid 80s beneath a partly cloudy sky. Wind S/SE 10-20mph.
We expect some thunderstorms to fire up by peak heating, between 3 and 5 p.m. Where storms develop they'll move to the southeast through the afternoon and evening...pretty close to yesterday.
There is a risk for severe thunderstorms today. One difference is the low-level moisture may be a little bit better, which would lead to slighly better surface instability. But we may see enough cloud cover around to offset that. The windfield aloft isn't all that strong, which may limit organization storms a bit. That said, storms today will have the potential to produce hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 65mph. This is the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, showing the risk area in yellow:
TOMORROW: Another good chance for thunderstorms, the difference will be the upper-level flow transitions to a southwesterly one. This should set up the dry line somewhere across Eastern New Mexico or the western South Plains. Some models indicate the severe potential a little greater, with large hail, damaging wind and isolated tornadoes possible. High temp in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
This is the severe outlook area tomorrow:
THURSDAY: The dry line should move farther east but likely still hold up somewhere around I-27 to the southwest South Plains. SPC highlights a risk for severe storms from Plainview to Reese Center to Seminole and points east. Again the threats will be large hail, damaging wind and isolated tornadoes.
WEEKEND: It looks dry and breezy to windy through the weekend with storms east of our area.
Be sure to check back here through the day as new information comes in. Rudy will have the next full update later today.