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THIS MORNING: The large upper low we've been watching this week is now across Southern California and will be moving northeast next few days. Ahead of this storm system the S/SE wind has stayed up early this morning, with some increase in the moisture. Main issue with getting humidity up here is even South Texas has been pretty dry. This morning our dew point is near 50 with 60s up into the Hill Country. Limited moisture will lead to a limited chance for storms today.
THIS AFTERNOON: High in the mid 80s, S/SE wind 15-25 mph, partly cloudy. The wind will be SW across New Mexico. Where the SW and SE wind comes together is where there will be some weak surface convergence, along a dry line, which might be enough for a few storms. This is west of Lubbock, where isolated storms are possible. The better setup for rain and thunderstorms will be in the northern Panhandle, where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a risk for a few severe storms, stretching up into SW South Dakota:
NEXT FEW DAYS: Drier air builds in tomorrow, mostly sunny with a gusty W/NW wind, high near 83. Saturday morning will be cool in the upper 40s, high near 80 Saturday with clouds increasing through the day. We can't rule out a stray shower Saturday, but the chance is low. An easterly wind will bring moisture into the area and this kind of setup can develop light rain that the computers don't resolve well.
BETTER SETUP FOR RAIN: While the first upper low will be up into the Great Lakes region by Friday another good piece of energy will be developing in the trough over the western United States. This will work to pull moisture into the region Saturday night into Sunday. As the storm system approaches we'll see better lift for rain and thunderstorms across much of Texas. Right now the best setup for rain here is Sunday, a lower chance Monday.
A cold front will push through some time late Monday or early Tuesday, leading to clearer, cooler and drier weather. However, the European computer model does show more rain mid-week...while the American GFS computer is dry right now.
FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Weather looks good, 7:30 p.m. temp in the mid 70s falling to the 60s late in the game, west wind a little breezy.
TEXAS TECH FORECAST: 11 a.m. kick in the upper 60s, reaching the upper 70s late. Wind NE/E 5-15mph. Clouds will increase through the day. While we can't completely rule out a brief shower it looks like the better rain setup will arrive Saturday night into Sunday.
Have a great day. Rudy will have a complete update to your forecast later today.