Chance for storms next few days

Reported by: Matt Ernst
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Updated: 5/07/2013 6:53 am
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STORMS LAST NIGHT: We picked up some rain across the western and central South Plains last night. One stronger storm moved from about Portales to Lubbock County. The best rain report was Wolfforth at 0.34" on the TTU Mesonet. Lubbock's airport received 0.08". Here are more totals:

Friona 0.21"
Hart 0.17"
Muleshoe 0.14"
Anton 0.13"
Morton 0.12"
Dimmitt 0.10"
Abernathy 0.09"
Slaton 0.09"
Tahoka 0.08"
Levelland 0.08"

There were a few hail reports, but nothing got out of hand, generally 1" hail reports...including just east of Whiteface in Hockley County.

TODAY: Some moisture has returned to the area, dew point in the 40s and 50s. A look downstate shows the moisture is a little better there, with 50s common from San Antonio to the Gulf. This still isn't much moisture, but shows some improvement.

The dry line shouldn't sharpen up too much today, but better moisture will be in place across the eastern half of the area. We'll see more sun today than yesterday. By the afternoon there should be enough instability, combined with a weak disturbance aloft, for a few storms to fire. We have a slight chance for thunderstorms in the area from about 4 p.m. into the evening, high in Lubbock near 84, wind S/SE 12-20mph. Sunset 8:35 p.m.

TONIGHT: It'll be milder with more moisture returning to the area. The low-level jet, or wind a few thousand feet off the surface, will crank up from the SSE. This could be enough to sustain any storms if they can fire in the afternoon, like the storm we saw last night.

TOMORROW: The dry line will be better defined and should move somewhere east of Lubbock by the afternoon. This means most of our area, including Lubbock, will have a hot, dry and breezy afternoon...high near 89 in the city, wind SW 12-22mph. It's east of the dry line where storms will be possible by the afternoon.

With deeper moisture and increased shear there is the setup for storms to turn severe with large hail and strong wind the primary risks. Here is the day 2 severe outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

LATE WEEK: We'll watch a cold front approaching from the north Thursday. The latest trend in the guidance is for some rain and storms ahead of the front, we'll mention a slight chance for storms. A better chance for rain and storms arrives Friday, fading by early Saturday. There will be some instability for storms, but no strong signals for severe weater at this point...though that could change as we get closer. The good news is the amount of water throughout the atmosphere will increase, which means the rain totals should be decent Fri-Sat.

There's another front to watch for the middle of next week, according to the guidance at this point. That could be another setup for rain.

 
 
 


Have a great day. We'll have any needed upates here in the blog.
-Matt
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Few storms possible tonight, quiet rest of the week
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