Windy, very cold today; freeze tonight

Reported by: Matt Ernst
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Updated: 5/02/2013 9:53 am
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updated 9:54 a.m.

As expected, rain totals were light in the area. If there was any frozen precip it wasn't much, just general rainfall and a few thunderstorms. A trace of precip at the airport. Here are some totals from the TTU Mesonet:

Paducah 0.36"
Roaring Spring 0.20"
Northfield 0.07"
Turkey 0.03"
Ralls 0.02"
Lake Alan Henry 0.01"

The showers have ended but the clouds will be in place for a while. We'll see gradual clearing from west to east today, but still a cold, windy afternoon.



WINTER'S BACK: It's more like January 2 than May 2. The north wind has been strong all night long, at times sustatined around 35mph and gusting to 50mph. It'll stay strong today, N 20-30mph with gusts to 40mph. The wind will gradually diminish this evening. Here are the current maps:

 
 
 


 
 
 


There's been a slow increase in precipitation in the area, mainly NE of Lubbock, between 4 and 6 a.m. Much farther north of here it's pretty good snowfall for the northeastern Texas Panhandle. In our area it's been rainfall, with the temp in the mid to upper 30s. Across the area we should see a little more precipitation through mid-morning. Most of this should be rain, but the temp will be slowly falling and we could see some sleet or snow mix in across parts of the area, mainly north. Also, with the storms to the east some small hail or ice pellets will be possible.

The chance for light precip is this morning, but the cold and windy pattern is all day. Clouds should clear from west to east through the afternoon. High in Lubbock near 47, record for the coldest high temp on this date is 46. Here is our forecast for the area:

 
 
 


FREEZE TONIGHT: A freeze is forecast across the area, with a low near 28 in Lubbock. Record low is 30. Here is the area forecast:

 
 
 


NEXT FEW DAYS: It'll turn warmer, back to the 60s tomorrow then 70s Saturday and Sunday. One interesting note is the last few runs of our high-res RPM model has been taking this big storm system that's north of us today to the east...then gradually retrograding to the west into the weekend, with some rain into Oklahoma. This is probably an outlier right now, but cut-off lows are pesky to forecast. If that would happen it could make it a little cooler here, but it should be in the 70s this weekend. That cut-off low is going to make the Kentucky Derby forecast tough.

NEXT WEEK: Low-level moisture returns to the area and it gets warmer, highs back in the 80s. Models show the potential for some thunderstorms, but we need to get better agreement on the smaller-scale features to know which day will have a decent chance. For now we won't get too excited on the thunderstorm potential, but hopefully the trends will move toward some rain.

Check back here for updates through the day, Rudy will have a full update to the forecast later today.
-Matt
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