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There is the potential for severe storms and localized flooding in the coming days. Please check back here, we'll have updates as needed. Be sure your NOAA Weather Radio is plugged in and ready to go, and have FOX 34 MyWarn
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THIS MORNING: We start with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Earlier there was a severe warning over Lamb and western Hale County, when one storm had some 60mph wind potential. But that storm weakened as it moved farther east and looks like the severe threat is relatively low across our area this morning. The strongest storms were near Tatum and Lovington but even here it's been a downward trend.
The batch of showers and storms will spread east, individual showers moving northeast, through this morning. Some will produce locally heavy rainfall. Through 6:45 Muleshoe is up to nearly an inch of rain.
BIG PICTURE: The big upper-level low driving all this has edged ever so slightly southeast. This thing is barely moving. I could probably call my friend who lives in Arizona and ask him to bike with its center. This is good news, it means more days of rain and thunderstorms. We've got a decent chance for thunderstorms through Memorial Day. But as this storm system gets closer the dynamics will be better organized, increasing the shear in the atmosphere. This means the severe weather risk goes up. It's not going to rain all weekend, but there isn't any point where we can rule out a shower or thunderstorm.
THIS AFTERNOON: We'll likely see a break in the action mid-day into early afternoon. Behind this morning's rain we'll have clouds and it'll be stable. But better lift overhead arrives late this afternoon into tonight. Unlike some days in the spring where we're waiting for it to get hot enough for storms, today that good lift will get showers and storms going. We are watching how much sun we see, because this will determine how severe storms will be.
Storm Prediction Center has highlighted our area with the risk for severe storms, shown in yellow:
Main threat is large hail and strong wind. Because there is more shear and some outflow boundaries likely left over from earlier storms...there is a low-end chance for a tornado somewhere in the area.
TOMORROW: Knowing the setup for tomorrow is somewhat complicated by what happens today...where it rains, where boundaries are set up, etc. But we still have a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Although we don't yet know the critical small-scale details, we can say in general it'll be close to today...another day with a risk for severe storms:
MEMORIAL DAY: We'll continue with a chance for storms. SPC also has highlighted much of our area Monday with the risk for a few severe storms:
HOW MUCH MORE RAIN: The high water content in the atmosphere will be here through the weekend. We've already had widespread 1"-2.5" rains with some 4.5" rains yesterday east of Lubbock. By Monday another inch or two will be common, some locations getting quite a bit more. This is great news.
Be sure to check back here for updates. Our entire weather staff will be working through the weekend.