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RAINY DAY: First, I know what you're wondering...where's the rain? The powerful storm system continues to trend slower. But don't worry, the rain is on the way. A few days ago it looked like rain would start yesterday afternoon...then it was early this morning...now most models are locked on rain starting this afternoon.
Early this morning rain is widespread from the mountains of Southwest Texas up to the Red River near Sherman and down to Beaumont, with the heaviest storms near San Antonio and Corpus Christi. The upper-level storm system is in northern Mexico, moving northeast. It's cloudy and humid this morning on the South Plains and it'll stay that way through today.
Rain will begin for our southern communities, from Hobbs to Snyder, first. We may see a few showers in this area through the morning. Through the afternoon rain will expand from southeast to northwest across the area, at times with some heavy downpours and possibly a few thunderstorms. Rain should cover all of the area at some point today, with showers fading around morning commute tomorrow, possibly a few linger showers through late tomorrow morning. Most of the guidance we review suggest the heaviest and most widespread rain will fall today between 6 p.m. and Midnight.
SNOW: It still looks like this is mainly rain for Lubbock with possibly some snow mixed in or a transition to all snow near the state line later tonight. If that changeover does occur it could be a few inches of wet snow on top of the rain. This is mainly for the higher terrain of the western and northwestern South Plains.
HOW MUCH?: The forecast for rain totals is still on track, roughly 1/2" to 1" of rain for most locations. The northwestern South Plains will likely receive less with the greatest totals east and southeast of Lubbock. Here is one of our in-house models, showing widespread 1/2" totals...this model suggest upwards of 2" off of the Caprock. That may be a little high, but a good sign.
REST OF THE WEEK: The rain will taper off through tomorrow morning. A southwest breeze will warm it to the low 50s. 60s make a brief return Friday with a gusty SW/W wind. The latest guidance is suggesting it may turn quite windy by Friday afternoon.
MUCH COLDER: A strong cold front arrives Saturday, which will set up a prolonged cold pattern next week. It'll likely reach the 40s Saturday with a few clouds, then a colder setup with more clouds Sunday. There could be a passing disturbance some time early next week, but nothing promising for snow at this point. What is likely is the western and central United States will be in a cold pattern next week.
Check back here for updates through the day. Rudy will have a complete forecast update later this afternoon.