Breezy next few days, chance for thunderstorms Wednesday

Reported by: Matt Ernst
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Updated: 2/18/2013 6:39 am
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CLEAR TODAY: It's a clear sky to begin the day across West Texas with the temp in the 30s and 40s. It's mainly clear all the way up into southern Kansas and west to California. A small wave in the upper atmosphere is leading to the clouds over the Central Plains and some snow around Denver. It'll be a blue sky Monday here, though a little cooler than yesterday's high of 72. Behind a weak front the high temp will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across our area, N wind 10-20mph.

 
 
 


TOMORROW: It'll start cool, in the upper 20s to low 30s. We'll see some clouds build in from the west, high again in the upper 50s to low 60s.

RAIN POTENTIAL: Our focus now is on a strong upper-level storm system that is now west of Vancouver. It'll dive down across the Desert Southwest and Four Corners by Wednesday. In response to this system low-level moisture will first return to South Texas and the Trans-Pecos region of West Texas by late tomorrow night. It should begin to move into our area by early Wednesday, with dew points in the 40s. There may be some low clouds or even drizzle early Wednesday, with possibly a few weak thunderstorms just east of our area in the morning. The best moisture should make it into the area by late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, dew points to about 50.

Most models show a dry line developing somewhere in the area by Wednesday afternoon. This is the boundary that has dry air to its west, humid air to the east. It can be the focal point for storm development. It doesn't look like the dry line itself will be enough for storms, but as the big upper-level system moves in from the west, it should provide the lift needed to break through the cap sometime late Wednesday aftenoon into Wednesday night, leading to scattered showers and storms. The limiting factor earlier in the day appears to be clouds keep it cool and stable. Even though there will be clouds...there might be a few sprinkles or light showers during the day.

SEVERE THREAT?: The NAM model has been most aggressive the past few days on heating up Wednesday, leading to the setup for some severe storms. The GFS and European models haven't been quite as agressive. There will be lots of shear, but instability will be low. At this point it appears there could be strong wind gusts with any storms that form late Wednesday, but the organized severe threat is farther downstate. Here is the day 3 severe outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, highlighting where severe storms are possible Wednesday:

 
 
 


If greater instability develops than models are showing now then the severe risk would be adjusted farther west.

REST OF THE WEEK: It turns windy behind this storms system on Thursday. The weekend looks quiet for now, with 60s and a good supply of sunshine.

Another storm system approaches Monday but it doesn't look like moisture returns in the air for any rain, should just keep the breeze up.

 
 
 


Have a great day! Rudy will have the next full forecast later this afternoon.
-Matt

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Lubbock Weather
78°
Mostly Cloudy

Wind: ENE 20 mph
Feels Like: 78°
High: 88°
Low: 69°

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