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COOL START: Most of the area is starting the day in the 50s. There are even some upper 40s over the Southwest Panhandle, under a mostly clear sky.
WARMER DAYS: After a cooler weekend, including a high of 75 Saturday, coolest here since early early June, it'll turn warmer next few days. Bright sunshine this afternoon, Lubbock's high near 89 degrees, wind S/SE 5-15mph. The southerly wind next few days will bring a little more moisture to the air, leading to warmer mornings after tonight.
Tonight's low near 60 in Lubbock, a few degrees cooler to the west and north. Tomorrow's high near 91 with a few clouds. Wednesday should be the last hot day of the week, close to 91 again.
RAIN POTENTIAL: With an upper-level disturbance nearing the region there could be a few showers or thunderstorms late Wednesday. With some moisture in the air and a high near 90 we'll include a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.
NEXT FRONT: The cold front that moved through Friday obviously changed things up. The various model runs show the next front arriving here some time Thursday and it also looks pretty strong. The guidance has actually been pretty consistent for several days now with a front, just speeding up the arrival some over the past few days.
With decent consistency in the models, showing the front and decent upper-level support, we'll bump up the potential for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. It'll also be cooler, high close to 80 with a N-NE breeze.
Rain may stick around in some locations into Friday. This is where the GFS and European models differ, on just when the rain potential ends. For now we'll keep a slight chance for rain through the first part of Friday, though the Euro model does show rain just SE of Lubbock well into the weekend. If the GFS verifies it'll be clearing and cool for the football games Friday as well as Gatorfest. The Euro model yesterday suggested it could rain into the Tech-NM game, though this morning's Euro model is a little faster on clearing things out.
Our forecast high Friday is 77. There will be a nice chill in the air for those football games.
WEEKEND: Provided the front and upper-level disturbance get out of here it'll be a clear, cool weekend. Morning lows in the mid 50s, afternoons ranging from 78 to 84 with a light south wind.
Have a great day! Rudy will have a full update to the forecast later today. I'll be out tomorrow and Wednesday, Caitlin will have the morning forecast for you.