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Storms started to form across our northern counties early this afternoon. Storm motion is to the east/southeast but with a front moving south across the region storms will continue to build farther south along the front. You can watch all this unfold with our live streaming radar below.
A few storms could become marginally severe this evening with the main concerns being wind gusts in excess of 60mph. We could also see frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall with some of the storms. The reason for the potential for heavy rainfall is due to the storm motion in relation to the movement of the front. With storms moving to the east/southeast but building to the south storms will train, meaning they will form over an area where a storm just left which can lead to lots of rainfall over specific locations, and possibly even some localized flooding.
The front is not the only reason for our rain chances tonight. In fact the front will continue to move south bringing with it a chance for storms but we are also watching a cluster of storms which have formed across the higher terrain of New Mexico and will move southeast into the South Plains tonight. Some of this rain could last into tomorrow morning.
We will continue with northwesterly flow in the upper part of the atmosphere tomorrow and for that matter through Friday. This will help push more storms down from southern Colorado and northern New Mexico into our area and in tomorrow’s case with moisture from the storms overnight and southeasterly surface winds continuing to feed moisture across the area our chances for scattered showers and storms look pretty good. One limiting factor will be the amount of clouds overhead which will help stabilize the atmosphere and prevent storm development. The Weather Prediction Center
has highlighted most of us to receive between 1-2 inches of rain through Friday night. Below is one of their graphics showing that forecast.
Over the weekend the center of high pressure will move closer to us and put us in more of a northerly flow in the upper part of the atmosphere. This will limit our rain chances and help warm our temperatures back up to around average after a slightly cooler end to the week thanks to the cold front and clouds overhead.
I will have an update on where all the storms are tonight on the News at Nine and Matt will have a full updated forecast for you tomorrow morning.