Chance for storms this weekend

Reported by: Rudy Pearce
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Updated: 3/29/2013 11:11 pm
11:00PM Update:

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has expired and all activity has moved to the east of the region. Lubbock officially only recorded a trace of an inch at the Airport while southern Lubbock saw around 1/10 of an inch. Click here for rainfall totals from the West Texas Mesonet sites. The rest of the forecast is listed below which includes more chances for rain this weekend and next week.



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A stationary front and dryline are setup across the region with moisture pooling across these boundaries. This plus an upper-level disturbance that will move overhead this afternoon and evening will provide us with slight chances for storms. You can watch the storms develop and move with our live streaming radar below.
While there is not a lot of moisture in place, there should be enough to fuel the development of some showers and storms. For this time of the year we look for dew point temperatures in excess of 50 degrees to show there is enough moisture for storm development. That type of moisture should be available across the Rolling Plains and perhaps even the eastern edge of the Caprock this afternoon and evening. The current dew point readings are listed below.
 
 
 

With any storms that do form today there is a potential for them to become quite strong even severe. The main threats today will be large hail in excess of 1” in diameter but we could also see some locally strong wind gusts in excess of 57mph. Due to this concern a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for essentially the eastern half of the FOX 34 viewing area until 11PM. The counties under the watch are highlighted in green in the graphic below.
 
 
 

All activity today should generally move to the east/southeast and end some time late tonight or early tomorrow morning. The dryline will shift farther east tomorrow keeping all chances for rain and storms farther east. That being said, there is a slight chance for our eastern counties to see some more storms form and again there is a chance for these storms to become severe. Below are two graphics showing tomorrow's Slight Risk for Severe Weather as produced by the Storm Prediction Center.
 
 
 

 
 
 

A front will move through Sunday morning and cool us down to more seasonable temperatures. For the past several days it has looked like Easter Sunday would be dry, but now models are showing some rain and storms forming as the front pushes through with some rain lasting into the afternoon.

The forecast for the beginning of next week gets tricky. Models continue to flip-flop on our chances for rain during this time period and now they are back on board us seeing some rain. Since next weeks forecast has been so erratic and a lot depends on a low pressure system that is still out over the Pacific Ocean we will take the wait and see approach and hope to get a better understanding of everything over the weekend. In our forecast you will see a 20% chance for storms on Monday as the front moves through but we have not yet introduced any chances for Tuesday and Wednesday. This very well could change though, so stay tuned!
 
 
 

Be sure to stay tuned into to us this afternoon and evening, whether it be by Facebook, Twitter, Radio or TV, we will keep you updated on any severe weather. Caitlin will have all the forecast updates for you this weekend.
-Rudy  
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